The Ultimate +850 Same Game Parlay for Patriots at Steelers

Week 14 in the NFL kicks off tonight with what could be a very ugly Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. Still, we worked up a banger of an ultimate same-game parlay. 

Valued at +850, let’s ride.

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Tonight’s game has a projected total of just 30.5 points, the lowest total in an NFL game since 1993, so with that, I need to favor the underdog with the points. Yes, the Patriots are very bad, but the Steelers are incapable of blowing teams out, as all seven of the Steelers’ wins have come by seven points or less. For tonight, I’ll bump the Patriots’ alternate spread up to +10.5 to give us some extra wiggle run and expect an absolute slugfest.

Rhamondre Stevenson is out for the Patriots tonight, leaving the backfield to Ezekiel Elliott. Last week, Zeke ran for 52 yards on 17 carries, with Stevenson still eating up nine carries. We know the Patriots want to throw the ball as little as possible with Bailey Zappe under center, so I’m confident in expecting Zeke to potentially see at least 20 carries tonight, making a 50+ yard leg a must with that much volume.

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The Patriots can’t run the ball every play, unfortunately, and last week, Bailey Zappe made it clear that Devante Parker was his number-one option through the air. Parker garnered nine targets from Zappe’s 25 pass attempts, ending with four receptions. We’ll bump this down to just three receptions tonight for a safety net in the parlay, but we will be wagering Parker to have four receptions at +110 as an individual bet.

Hunter Henry had two catches off four targets last week, making it his eighth game this season with two receptions out of ten possible games. The Steelers defense doesn’t defend tight ends all that great, so we think two receptions for Zappe’s number-two target is a reachable threshold.

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I’m more hopeful that Mitch Trubisky will move the ball tonight than I probably should be, so I expect he will find his top target in Diontae Johnson at least four times. The Patriots are much more vulnerable against the pass than the run, so I anticipate Trubisky having upwards of 30 pass attempts, making it highly likely that Johnson would warrant about seven-plus targets and be in a great position to have four catches.

To keep this leg as simple as possible, George Pickens has had at least three receptions in 10 of 12 games this season. That’s good enough for me to close out our parlay.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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