With the NFL Divisional Round upon us, what better time to release a few spoilers and wild, bold predictions? After all, we all know that anything can actually happen in the National Football League.
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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans are already living a Cinderella story this season. Picked by some to finish dead last, the Texans not only won the division but shocked the Cleveland Browns as home dogs in the opening round.
Stroud has proven doubters wrong and made the Carolina Panthers wish they picked him first overall instead of Bryce Young. He’s a lock for OROY and was in the MVP conversation before getting hurt in Week 14.
Now, Stroud has the chance to go into Baltimore as a 9.5-point underdog, become Rocky Balboa, and take out Apollo Creed. While we’re convinced he can lead the Texans to a cover, a win could be out of reach.
Taking the dog to cover on the road against the AFC’s top seed is not much of a bold roll of the dice, but taking Stroud to hit the 300-yard passing mark is. If the Texans are to stay in this game, they need everything Stroud can give. While the former Ohio State standout’s passing prop is set at 240.5 yards, taking him to hit 300 or more pays nicely.
Bold Pick: CJ Stroud 300+ Passing Yards: +360
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
While Christian McCaffrey won’t win NFL MVP after a season where he had by far the most rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), rushing TDs (14) and total touchdowns (21), he should have OPOY wrapped up. Well rested after the bye week and sitting out Week 18, expect CMC to flex his MVP-snub muscles for a massive game against the Packers.
For this to happen, Green Bay will have to keep this game relatively close as +9.5-point road dogs, which we believe they will be able to do. Deploying outside zone run plays with Aaron Jones could be the formula to both control the clock and hit a Niners’ defensive weakness. As our Warren Sharp explained, “The 49ers this year versus outside zone ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed, 31st in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate.”
If the blowout factor is taken away, McCaffrey should see plenty of touches for four quarters. Green Bay was not good at stopping the run this year, giving up the fifth-most yards in football at 128.3 per game. They are much stingier against the pass, allowing the NFL’s 11th fewest receiving yards and the ninth fewest to running backs this season.
CMC’s rushing yards prop sits at 89.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel, but we think he can go above and beyond this number.
Bold Picks: While we will go with his alt rushing yards at 125+, paying out at +280, if you’re feeling extra spicy, sprinkle a few bucks at 150+ at +580.
Check out SportsGrid’s NFL game picks and NFL Props Picks all Season Long.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
The Tampa Bay Bucs have not been getting enough respect all season long. Most have scoffed at any team in the NFC South as pretenders and geographical beneficiaries of a weak grouping. While there may be some truth to those assertions, Tampa has displayed resiliency, a formidable defense when healthy, and a strong, although inconsistent, passing attack.
The Bucs boasted the league’s fifth-best regular season rushing defense, allowing just 95.3 yards per game on 3.8 per carry. They followed that up by holding the Philadelphia Eagles, the eighth-best rushing team, to just 42 yards on the ground in a dominant Wild Card Weekend win.
Detroit’s strength is also the rushing attack, where they rank fifth. Unlike Philly, where Jalen Hurts is a huge component, the Lions have two elite running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. While the Bucs, numbers fall a bit against RBs, where they rank 11th in yards allowed, they gave up a league-low five touchdowns to opposing backs this season.
If Tampa can limit Detroit’s strength, the pressure falls on Jared Goff. While Goff has been better at home and indoors, he can be guilty of holding the ball too long. That plays into Tampa’s pass rush, where they finished seventh in sacks this season.
Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career, and Detroit allowed the sixth-most yards through the air this season.
After squeaking by the Rams at home on Wildcard Weekend, in a game they probably should have lost if Sean McVay hadn’t played it so conservatively, the Cinderella story ends for Detroit this week.
Bold Pick: Buccaneers ML +225
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have had some of the most entertaining quarterback battles in this era of the position. Who can forget the back-and-forth score-for-score Divisional Round Game game that ended in a 42-36 Chiefs overtime win two years ago. After Allen threw for a score with 13 seconds left in regulation, Mahomes countered by leading KC to a seemingly impossible game-tying FG before hitting Travis Kelce for the OT-winning TD. While the league’s arguably current top two pivots have a 3-3 head-to-head record, Mahomes has the 2-0 postseason edge. This is where that undefeated mark changes.
While Buffalo winning at home as -2.5-point favorites would hardly be a shocking twist, there are some excellent leans to Allen outplaying Mahomes on Sunday. While Patrick may pass for more yards, looking to Allen on the ground is the way to go.
The Chiefs have given up the tenth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the league, allowing 342 in the regular season. They also gave up 25 yards to a non-rushing quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa in their Wildcard Weekend win over Miami last week. The Cheifs have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards to pivots, so Allen will likely have to create with his legs to be successful this weekend. His rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 (-114), but we can get bolder than that.
Bold Picks: Josh Allen 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half: +330, Most Rushing Yards of Game: +330
