In the high-stakes matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, SportsGrid’s NFL analyst, Warren Sharp, emphasizes a critical strategic approach for the Ravens’ offense, mainly focusing on quarterback Lamar Jackson and the utilization of play action.
Chiefs @ Ravens Game Odds at FanDuel
- Spread: Chiefs +3.5 (-102) | Ravens -3.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (+168) | Ravens (-200)
- Total: OVER 44.5 (-108) | UNDER 44.5 (-112)
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Sharp underscores the vulnerability of the Chiefs’ defense to play action, a weakness that the Ravens must exploit. “The Kansas City Chiefs had the third-largest splits against play action. They are one of the most sensitive defenses to play action,” he notes. This insight is pivotal for the Ravens’ game plan, especially when it comes to passing the football.
Analyzing the Chiefs’ performance in the playoffs, Sharp presents compelling statistics: “In 18 early down drop backs when teams use play action against them, quarterbacks are averaging plus 0.30 EPA per attempt, 67% success, eight yards per attempt with 67% completions.” In stark contrast, when quarterbacks do not use play action, the numbers drop significantly to minus 0.23 EPA per attempt, only 33% success, a low 3.7 yards per attempt, and 54% completions.
Check out SportsGrid’s NFL game picks and NFL Props Picks all Season Long.
The discrepancy is even more pronounced throughout the season. “The Kansas City Chiefs ranked number two in yards per attempt against them when teams do not use play action. But when teams do use play action, that drops all the way down to number 19, allowing 8.7 yards per attempt,” Sharp adds.
For the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, this suggests a clear tactical direction. Although Jackson is a top-12 passer without play action, with his performance being slightly below average in EPA per attempt, the matchup against the Chiefs presents a unique opportunity. “Lamar Jackson does not need play action to succeed, but against this Kansas City Chiefs defense, because they’re so bad against play action and because he’s so good when using play action, if they hope to dethrone Patrick Mahomes, they better utilize a lot of play action,” advises Sharp.
Lamar Jackson Passing Props at FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson 209.5 Passing Yards: O/U -110
- Lamar Jackson 19.5 Pass Completions: O -105 | U -115
- Lamar Jackson 29.5 Pass Attempts: O +104 | U -128
- Lamar Jackson 1.5 TD Passes: O +145 U -180
The Ravens’ success against the Chiefs could hinge significantly on their ability to incorporate play action into their passing game. With Jackson at the helm, exploiting the Chiefs’ defensive susceptibility to play action could be the key to gaining an edge in what promises to be a gripping and strategic NFL showdown.
Watch Warren Sharp’s and all of SportsGrid’s Prop Picks on SportsGrid’s YouTube Channel
