Red Sox’ Decision on Jonathan Papelbon Could Be Key of Offseason for Theo Epstein

by abournenesn

Oct 7, 2010

Red Sox' Decision on Jonathan Papelbon Could Be Key of Offseason for Theo Epstein The "bridge year" is over.

This year, the bridge featured an early exit, a departure from the journey modern Red Sox fans have come to expect. The only October baseball around here was the three-game series against the Yankees to wrap up an 89-win season.

And so begins the long road to 2011, and one of the most compelling offseasons the Red Sox have experienced in a long time. Will the team make a major splash into free-agent waters and sign a Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth? Will they pull off a blockbuster trade and bring an Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder to town?

No matter which way Theo Epstein goes this offseason, one issue must be addressed. The Red Sox' bullpen was not good enough in 2010, and must be rebuilt. The 4.24 ERA posted by relievers this season was third-worst in the American League, the 63 homers allowed by the bullpen the most in all of baseball.

There’s no doubt the bullpen will have a new look next year. The only question is what role, if any, will Jonathan Papelbon have in it.

Papelbon will turn 30 next month and is the greatest closer in franchise history. His 188 saves are the most ever by a Red Sox pitcher, and he was the first pitcher in MLB history with 35 or more saves in each of his first five full seasons.

He also led the AL with eight blown saves this season and posted an ERA of 3.90 — a run and a half higher than any single-season ERA in his history as a reliever.

There has been plenty of debate about his future with the team. The Red Sox have one more year of control over him, and he has made it clear that he is looking for a big-time payday when he hits the free-agent market. That has led many fans to want him traded while the team can get something in return.

The problem is, the Red Sox can't realistically get much in return. And it’s not just because of his struggles this season. It's because he stands to make some $12 million in arbitration this year, a figure few teams would want to pay for a player who will ride the next season out to free agency.

There is a third option. The Red Sox could not tender arbitration to Papelbon, thus releasing him and allowing him to hit free agency a year early. They wouldn't get anything in return for a man who has served as the cornerstone of the bullpen for five seasons. They wouldn't even get a draft pick since they would be letting him go.

They would, however, achieve some financial flexibility. With $12 million in hand, they could reconstruct that bullpen from the ninth inning back. They could move Daniel Bard into the spot, or go get an established free agent like Rafael Soriano to pitch behind Bard. They could use it to add two or three strong arms to get them to the ninth inning.

It would be a harsh move. A bold move. But it will take bold moves to get this team back to where it wants to be. You can bet we'll be spending plenty of time discussing the team's options concerning Papelbon in the weeks ahead.

Just remember there are three options, not two. The Red Sox can keep the closer, trade him or just let him go and reinvest that money elsewhere.

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