Every year we survey the baseball landscape for the next big breakout star. Every year that player’s ascension is one of the season’s best stories. Yet, all too often, that new luminary is filling a void created by the demise of another player.Since we’re mired in the depths of our seasonal affective disorder, let’s take a look at some breakdown candidates for 2011. These aren’t necessarily guys playing out the last year of their last contract in a limited role, but rather players who are still considered starters and are expected to produce for their respective clubs, but may not have what it takes.
The standards for such seasons are Willie Mays, who was a .232 hitter with not much power in his final two seasons, and Mickey Mantle, whose career average fell below .300 (.298) after a final painful year for a fifth-place Yankees team. Ken Griffey Jr. notably hit the wall last year. Garret Anderson did the same in a miserable effort in Los Angeles. On the home front, Mike Lowell had his plunge into retirement, which he accepted with open arms amid a trying six months.
While each of the following players are under contract and nobody can fault them for playing the game they love, they are five candidates to follow Mays and Griffey and Lowell and others who had that year where it went south in a hurry:
Jorge Posada
Perhaps a full-time role as a designated hitter will allow Posada to have a bounce-back effort in the last year of his contract, but it might not. Simply put, he looked overmatched at the plate from time to time in 2010 and has always posted significantly better numbers as a catcher (.279 career batting average, .868 OPS) than as a DH (.223, .694). In the same number of at-bats in 2010 that he had in 2009, Posada saw reductions in production across the board.
Perhaps a full-time role as a designated hitter will allow Posada to have a bounce-back effort in the last year of his contract, but it might not. Simply put, he looked overmatched at the plate from time to time in 2010 and has always posted significantly better numbers as a catcher (.279 career batting average, .868 OPS) than as a DH (.223, .694). In the same number of at-bats in 2010 that he had in 2009, Posada saw reductions in production across the board.
Chipper Jones
Many wondered if Jones should retire after a knee injury ended his 17th season in the majors last August, but he preempted those questions by declaring at the time he would return to the Atlanta Braves for at least one more year. Jones has been in and out of the lineup for several years now, appearing in a career-low 95 in 2010. He also had the second-lowest OPS of his career, so even when he was healthy the production was in decline. Is this the year his fragile body gives out?
Many wondered if Jones should retire after a knee injury ended his 17th season in the majors last August, but he preempted those questions by declaring at the time he would return to the Atlanta Braves for at least one more year. Jones has been in and out of the lineup for several years now, appearing in a career-low 95 in 2010. He also had the second-lowest OPS of his career, so even when he was healthy the production was in decline. Is this the year his fragile body gives out?
Todd Helton
He reworked the final two years of his contract last March in an effort to avoid being a subpar player approaching 40 and making $19.1 million. Much of the cash will be deferred to a time when Helton is retired and looking back on a stellar career. The question is, will he like what he sees of 2011? Last year, Helton suffered through the worst campaign of his career while playing in just 118 games. He had more strikeouts than walks for the first time since 2001, a reflection of a slowing bat. Once a guy who hammered fastballs in the thin air of Coors Field, Helton was often neutralized by the pitch last year. He has also slowed dramatically at first base, looking nothing like the defensive standout of his youth.
He reworked the final two years of his contract last March in an effort to avoid being a subpar player approaching 40 and making $19.1 million. Much of the cash will be deferred to a time when Helton is retired and looking back on a stellar career. The question is, will he like what he sees of 2011? Last year, Helton suffered through the worst campaign of his career while playing in just 118 games. He had more strikeouts than walks for the first time since 2001, a reflection of a slowing bat. Once a guy who hammered fastballs in the thin air of Coors Field, Helton was often neutralized by the pitch last year. He has also slowed dramatically at first base, looking nothing like the defensive standout of his youth.
Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman would like to make sure Mariano Rivera never catches his all-time saves record. With a lead of 42 in the category and with Rivera on the books for two more years, Hoffman has made it clear he still wants to remain a closer. However, interest has been minimal in the 43-year-old free agent. Hoffman sported some pretty ugly numbers much of last year before finishing strong. He is just a year removed from a legitimate All-Star campaign, so there may be something left. But as a closer? Not so sure about that. He may hang them up or come back in a middle relief role and hope that Rivera falls short.
Hoffman would like to make sure Mariano Rivera never catches his all-time saves record. With a lead of 42 in the category and with Rivera on the books for two more years, Hoffman has made it clear he still wants to remain a closer. However, interest has been minimal in the 43-year-old free agent. Hoffman sported some pretty ugly numbers much of last year before finishing strong. He is just a year removed from a legitimate All-Star campaign, so there may be something left. But as a closer? Not so sure about that. He may hang them up or come back in a middle relief role and hope that Rivera falls short.
Kevin Millwood
Maybe it’s already happened for Millwood, who was 4-16 with a 5.10 ERA last year. He did right the ship down the stretch and seemingly has some interest from a few teams out there, but the 36-year-old has been trending toward the cliff for a few years now. After never sporting an ERA higher than 4.85 through his first 10 years, he has been above 5.00 in three of the last four. Similarly, his WHIP has been above 1.50 just three times in his career, all in the last four seasons.
Maybe it’s already happened for Millwood, who was 4-16 with a 5.10 ERA last year. He did right the ship down the stretch and seemingly has some interest from a few teams out there, but the 36-year-old has been trending toward the cliff for a few years now. After never sporting an ERA higher than 4.85 through his first 10 years, he has been above 5.00 in three of the last four. Similarly, his WHIP has been above 1.50 just three times in his career, all in the last four seasons.
Are there any other veteran stars due for a severe drop-off in 2011? Leave your comments below.
