Why Is The Patriots' Defense On Pace To Be Worst Of Bill Belichick Era?

There’s really no two ways about it: The New England Patriots’ defense, through three weeks, stinks.

No matter what metric you follow, they all end in the same conclusion. The Patriots rank dead last in total defense, points allowed per game, pass defense, yards allowed per play and Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). They’re below average in run defense and takeaways per game.

It’s a testament to New England’s offense that the team is 2-1 after three weeks.

The Patriots have never finished a season ranked last in team defense or DVOA since Bill Belichick was hired in 2000. They ranked 30th in DVOA and 31st in total defense in 2011 — and still made the Super Bowl. The lowest they have ranked in points allowed was 17th in 2000, 2002 and 2005. They’ve only ranked outside the top 10 in fewest points allowed once since 2006, when they were 15th in, you guessed it, 2011.

Though Belichick has never used the term, his defense year-in and year-out can best be described as “bend-don’t-break.” It lets up yards but not a ton of points. This year the unit seems to be adhering to the unenviable “bend-but-also-usually-break” strategy.

Quarterback Tom Brady will have to keep racking up AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the Patriots to continue winning. Unless something changes on defense, of course.

Getting linebacker Dont’a Hightower back from injury should help defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s unit. Hightower is New England’s best linebacker by a long shot and maybe its second-best pass rusher behind Trey Flowers. He alone won’t fix the team’s issues covering running backs or preventing big plays, but he’ll help.

It also should help when players like cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive end Cassius Marsh and rookie defensive linemen Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise get better acclimated to their new surroundings. Communication has been an issue at times.

Perhaps the biggest problem is, at least on paper, this unit shouldn’t be as bad as it has performed. The 2016 Patriots allowed the fewest points in the NFL and won a Super Bowl. Perhaps they were slightly overrated based on their relatively weak schedule, but they were good.

The Patriots lost pass rushers Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard and cornerback Logan Ryan in free agency and pass rusher Rob Ninkovich to retirement over the offseason. Linebacker Shea McClellin and defensive tackle Vincent Valentine are on injured reserve. Defensive end Kony Ealy, who was acquired to offset the losses of Long and Sheard, didn’t work out and was waived, and rookie pass rusher Derek Rivers tore his ACL in training camp.

Still, this unit gained Gilmore, Marsh, Butler, Wise and defensive lineman Lawrence Guy. New England also acquired linebacker David Harris, who has barely played.

The 2017 defense should be, at the very least, only slightly worse than the 2016 unit. Instead, they’re much worse.

Perhaps this is just some optimistic thinking, but the 2017 defense should be able to turn it around by the end of the season to at least be average. This group is much more talented and has much more continuity than that 2011 unit we keep referencing. The current defense isn’t overly fast, and its linebacker corps could use a boost through a trade, but it seems unlikely, based on talent alone, that it will become the first Patriots defense under Belichick to end the season dead last in any meaningful category. It’s certainly off to a bad start, though.