NFL Week 3 Lines To Watch: Get On Patriots While You Can; Chargers Worth A Look?
When it comes to sports betting, no sport is more tantalizing than the NFL. Not coincidentally, no sport is tougher to make money on than the NFL.
The lines are sharper in the NFL than they are anywhere else, given the amount of attention and public action the league attracts. And as the week goes on, the lines get sharper and sharper as they’re bet into and everyone starts to get a better idea of the matchup.
For example, the New England Patriots opened as 2-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Some bettors grabbed the Jaguars at that number, pushing it down to a 1-point spread before eventually settling at 1.5. Of course, it didn’t make a huge difference, as Jacksonville not only covered but won outright. But it’s an illustration of how things can change throughout the week.
So if you’re looking to make money on next Sunday, your work should already have started for the upcoming week, as you might have some opportunities to get a number you won’t be able to find on Sunday.
Here’s a look ahead to some of the more tempting Week 3 lines — before they change.
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
The Patriots, coming off a lopsided loss in Jacksonville, opened as 6.5-point favorites at a handful of online sportsbooks. If you like New England to bounce back, you’re going to want to get that number while you can, with 75 percent of the bets already coming in on the Patriots. It’s a little daunting to lay that many points on the road for a team playing two consecutive road games, but that 6.5 number looks a lot better than seven.
All the trends point toward the Patriots here, too.
— They’re 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
— They’re 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games
— Tom Brady is 38-16 ATS after a loss, BUT he’s only 5-10 ATS when a 7-point favorite or more, making that half-point even more important
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (over 54.5 points)
If you’re one of the many falling in love with Patrick Mahomes, you might want to jump on this line while you can because you’re probably not alone. Opposing quarterbacks have a 99 passer rating through two games against the 49ers, and we just watched Matthew Stafford and the Lions get right offensively in San Francisco. Stafford averaged 10 yards per completion Sunday; Mahomes is averaging 15 yards per completion through two games.
Defensively, the Chiefs have had major issues, though. Only New Orleans is allowing more yards per play than the 6.9 yards per play yielded by the Chiefs, and their two games have averaged a combined 72.5 points per contest.
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Los Angeles Rams
Disclaimer: This is one you might want to wait on and see how the line changes. If you believe in the Chargers, this is a potential line movement to watch. Right now, the Rams — who have won their first two games by a combined 54 points — are getting 57 percent of the bets. If the money keeps coming in on the Rams, maybe we see a slight movement here, which is where you want to be with Philip Rivers. The Chargers quarterback is 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 points or more, which makes that 7-point number look good now, but a 7.5-point spread would look even better.
Information from SportsInsights.com, DonBest.com and WalterFootball.com were used for this story
