MLB Writer Predicts Franchy Cordero To Break Out, Based On This Stat

Franchy Cordero has a big swing, which might produce positive results at Fenway Park.

MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan named the Boston Red Sox outfielder among 10 breakout-hitter candidates for the 2021 Major League Baseball season Tuesday. Harrigan cites Cordero’s percent barrel rate — which the writer defines as “batted balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle” — as reason to believe the player will thrive

“Cordero has amassed just 315 plate appearances in four big league seasons, missing significant time with a right forearm strain, a right elbow sprain and a fractured right hamate bone,” Harrigan wrote. “But in that small sample size, the 6-foot-3, 226-pound slugger has shown some impressive raw power,” Harrigan wrote. “Nine of Cordero’s 12 career homers have traveled 420 feet or more, including a 489-foot blast in 2018 that is tied for the 12th-longest homer in Statcast history (since 2015).

“The 26-year-old has recorded 22 barrels … as a big leaguer, with a 12.4 percent barrel rate. To put that in perspective, only 30 qualified hitters had a barrel rate of 12.4 percent or better in 2020. Cordero has shown a tendency to swing and miss, but after recording a 38.4 percent whiff rate and a 38.8 percent strikeout rate in his first three seasons, he lowered those marks to 20.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively, in 2020. It’s unclear how much playing time Cordero will get after being traded from the Royals to the Red Sox last week, but it will be fun to watch him take aim at Fenway Park’s famous red seats in the right-field bleachers this season.”

The Red Sox acquired Cordero last week from the Kansas City Royals as part of the Andrew Benintendi trade. Royals general manager Dayton Moore offered a rave review of Cordero on Sunday, and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom expects Cordero to contribute in Boston right away.

If that means Cordero will be an everyday player for the Red Sox, he just might produce some impressive numbers. Should that come to pass, count Harrigan among those who won’t be surprised.