Why Monday’s Dolphins-Saints Game Now Really Matters To Patriots

Given the results around the NFL on Sunday, the Patriots would’ve ended the day as members of the 2021 playoff field had they beaten the Bills.

But New England suffered a disappointing 33-21 loss at Gillette Stadium, and in doing so surrendered the AFC East driver’s seat to Buffalo and fell to sixth place in the AFC. The 9-6 Patriots still control their own destiny in terms of punching a playoff ticket, but things nevertheless are more complicated now than they would have been had New England won Sunday afternoon.

So, it’s officially scoreboard-watching season in Foxboro. That begins Monday night when the red-hot Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints.

Miami began the season at 1-7 but since has won six straight to even its record. Because the Dolphins, who beat the Patriots in the season opener, currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker, there is a scenario in which they — and the Raiders, who we’ll get to in a minute — make the playoffs over New England. The Dolphins will host the Patriots in the Week 18 regular season finale.

But that scenario would be on life support if Miami loses to New Orleans. Should that happen, New England would be able to clinch a playoff berth with a victory in one of its final two games, beginning with this Sunday’s home matchup against the awful Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the Dolphins would not be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Saints.

Despite how well the Dolphins have played since October, a Monday night win over New Orleans felt like a longshot — until late last week. With backup quarterback Taysom Hill landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list, the Saints will give the start to third-string quarterback Ian Book, a 2021 fourth-rounder who will be making his NFL debut.

So, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins win their eighth game in a row.

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If that happens, the Patriots would not be able to clinch a playoff spot with just a win over the Jaguars. They also would need losses from either Las Vegas, which will visit the Indianapolis Colts, or Miami, which will be on the road against the Tennessee Titans.

(We’ll spare you the nitty-gritty on tiebreaking procedures and just tell you that, if the Raiders and Patriots finish with the same record, Las Vegas would get the nod due to the common games tiebreaker.)

With all that said, nothing the Raiders and Dolphins do would matter if the Patriots win their final two games. If New England wins out, it’s in the playoffs — plain and simple.

However, if the Patriots lose to the Jaguars, the Raiders upset the Colts and the Dolphins beat both the Saints and Titans, New England would enter Week 18 as the AFC’s seventh seed and in a potential must-win scenario. The Raiders and Dolphins both would have an opportunity to squeeze the Patriots out of the playoffs. So, too, could the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens — depending on how the five aforementioned teams fare in Week 17. (The Raiders will host the Chargers in the season finale, while Ravens will host the Steelers.)

Teams currently holding playoff spots, such as the Colts, Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, also could factor into the wild card tiebreakers if they slip up over the next two weeks.

Admittedly, that’s enough to scramble your brains. That’s why the quickest way for the Patriots, and their fans, to avoid a major headache is for the Dolphins to lose on Monday and for New England to win next Sunday.