The Red Sox, after a month of the 2022 season, looked destined to be sellers at the MLB trade deadline.
Now, after a May turnaround bled into a red-hot June, Boston looks like a playoff team. Alex Cora's team might not be able to catch the Yankees, but the Sox do look poised to hang around all summer and grab one of the three wild-card spots.
The Atlanta Braves served as the latest reminder in 2021 that you just need to get in to have a chance to win the World Series. As such, the Red Sox should now approach the trade deadline as legitimate contenders, especially if they're able to get anything from Chris Sale and James Paxton down the stretch.
There are a few areas in which the team could improve. Starting pitching is almost always a focus for contenders at the deadline. The Red Sox, despite some impressive depth performances recently, are no different especially considering some of the recent injuries. The offense once again is solid. That's not to say they couldn't use some depth at first base or in the outfield, though.
But if we were to rank the priorities for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom at the deadline, relief pitching likely would be at the top -- especially given the uncertainty of Sale and Paxton, whose eventual returns (and level of effectiveness) could affect, say, Garrett Whitlock.
Boston's relievers haven't been bad this season. The stable ranks in the middle of baseball in just about everything.
Put another way: The bullpen is good enough to get the Red Sox to the playoffs, but is it good enough to win the World Series? The answer for Boston and just about every other contender is "maybe," but the Sox could definitely upgrade to a point to where there's more confidence in the unit.
Here are a few relievers who could be available at the deadline that would make sense for the Red Sox.
David Bednar, Pirates
The 27-year-old right-hander is going to be on every one of these lists this year. He's been sensational for the Pirates this season, striking out 49 in 35 1/3 innings and allowing just 21 hits. He finished top 10 in Rookie of the Year voting last season, and his 263 ERA+ this season jumps off the page. Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, he's a valuable chip for Pittsburgh, one who is under contract through 2026. If the Buccos want to cash in at the deadline, he figures to yield a significant return.
Chris Martin, Cubs
Martin's numbers, on the surface, aren't especially impressive with an era over 4.00 and a higher WHIP than his career mark. But he just pounds the strike zone, walking just 33 batters over his entire career which spans 234 games. His FIP is almost a run lower than his ERA. His batting average on balls in play against is quite high at .371, despite the lowest hard-hit percentage since 2018. He's getting a ton of ground balls, too, so that all feels like it could be some bad luck that is due to regress to the mean. He also has a pretty impressive postseason resume, allowing just three earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He allowed just one run on four hits in five appearances with the Braves last fall. He's a rental, too, so the price might not be as burdensome.
David Robertson, Cubs
Sticking with the Cubs, Robertson has completely revitalized his career at 37. He's striking out 12 batters per nine innings and has an ERA+ of 228. For those who maybe believe the Red Sox need a veteran guy to lean on down there in the postseason, Robertson certainly checks that box with 33 career playoff appearances, all but three in the crucible of New York with the Yankees.
Victor Arano, Nationals
Yes, there's a bit of a pattern here, as Arano is another pitcher whose surface stats don't look great but also don't tell the complete story. If the Red Sox acquired him, critics would point to the 5.01 ERA and dismiss the move as meaningless. Of all qualified relievers, only three have a bigger (positive) difference between their ERA and FIP -- Arano's FIP is a tidy 2.74. His 4.2% walk rate is the 14th-lowest among all qualified bullpen arms, and he's also in the top 20 in groundball rate. Here's the other thing: The Red Sox could try to acquire him as part of a package deal to also acquire Washington slugger Josh Bell. There's precedent for the two teams to deal after last season's Kyle Schwarber swap.
Tanner Scott, Marlins
Pretty simple one here. Scott is a left-hander, whose 37% strikeout rate ranks in the top 1% of pitchers. Granted, he also walks a lot of guys, but a hard-throwing left-hander who presents an uncomfortable at-bat should always be on the radar (even if his hard-hit rates are up this season).
Jorge Lopez, Orioles
The questions with Lopez are obvious: Why is he so good, and can he sustain this success? He's in the top 7% of the league in exit velocity, top 2% in expected slugging, top 1% of hard-hit percentage and top 5% in expected ERA. He's done in part by relying heavily on a heavy sinker and almost completely ditching his four-seamer. His velocity is way up across the board, and his swing-and-miss rates are off the chart compared to his career. The perpetually rebuilding Orioles have been more competitive than expected, but landing a top prospect for Lopez might be too difficult to pass up.
