There are just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, and everyone is just about ready for the playoffs to get here.
That probably includes plenty of teams across the league, from the contenders who can't wait to continue their roads to the Super Bowl, and the pretenders who want to get on their roads to just about anywhere else.
For bettors on the outside looking in, it presents an added wrinkle when trying to handicap matchups. It can lead to blowouts for teams who are checked out one way or another, and it can also lead to some upsets.
Here are three games we have circled for potential upsets in NFL Week 17, with consensus point spreads from the NESNBets live odds page.
(+3.5) Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Are the Falcons really 3.5 points better than anyone, regardless of where the game is played? Doesn't really feel like it. Maybe the Cardinals go back to Colt McCoy if he's cleared, but it could make more sense to roll with Trace McSorley again. It wasn't especially efficient or pretty, but the Cardinals did move the ball at times against a much better Tampa Bay defense. McSorley lost two fumbles, and if he can clean that up, the Cardinals could have some success against a Falcons defense that hasn't really stopped anyone. We could see McSorley, who rushed 473 times in college at Penn State, really get a chance to use his legs here. On the other side of things, there has been nothing especially impressive about Desmond Ridder in his first couple of starts, and Atlanta has struggled at times to protect him. That could bode well for the Cardinals pass rush, anchored by J.J. Watt, who you know is going to want to make an impact and go out on a high note after announcing he's retiring following the season.
(+2.5) Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
This one is kind of obvious. The Commanders are so desperate to get something going offensively they're turning things back over to quarterback Carson Wentz. Aside from a halfway-decent relief appearance last week, his D.C. run has been horrendous. The matchup this week could be a tough one, too. The Cleveland defense has steadily improved as the year progressed. While the Browns still rank 21st in points against, Joe Woods' unit has put together more than a month of steady work. Cleveland hasn't allowed more than 23 points in a game since a Week 11 loss to the Bills. Only the 49ers have had a better defense by EPA per play allowed over that stretch. The Browns have been especially opportunistic forcing eight turnovers in their last four games, and Wentz certainly is liable to give them a couple this week. And while Deshaun Watson has yet to look anything close to the player Cleveland thought they were getting, this week is the first game in three weeks the Browns will play in weather that isn't freezing cold.
(+6.5) Los Angeles Rams "at" Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are going to the playoffs, which is quite the achievement for a team that looked dead in the water with mounting injuries. A loss to Kansas City in Week 11 dropped them to 5-5, but they have since won four of five to get in. Those four wins haven't been overly impressive, though. The Chargers beat Arizona, Miami, Tennessee and Indianapolis in that stretch. The Rams obviously are going nowhere, either, but they have shown signs of life since bringing aboard Baker Mayfield. Sean McVay looks like a miracle worker again with Mayfield throwing three touchdowns and no picks with a pair of wins in both of his home games. Obviously, this is a de facto home game, too. The other question about the Chargers is just how motivated they'll be to win this game. Other than bragging rights, there's not a lot on the line. They conceivably could improve their seeding in the AFC, but they know they're going on the road in two weeks regardless. At this point, they probably should put an emphasis on getting healthy over everything else which could benefit the Rams.
