Masters Weather: Rain In Augusta Forecast Could Be Major Factor

The Masters famously loves to control everything it can surrounding the most famous golf tournament in the world. However, a look at the forecast for this week in Augusta, Ga., is a reminder that not even the Masters can control Mother Nature.

As the tournament itself gets closer and closer, the forecast gets worse and worse. Here’s the latest look from WRDW-TV in Augusta:

Thursday looks OK, even pretty good. Most of the forecasts say it will be the best day of the weekend. Friday, meanwhile, should start off fine before taking a turn for the worse. That being said, most of the second round should be played, it seems.

The weekend is when things get really hairy. Saturday could be a pure washout. It’s going to rain, but it’s really a question of just how much. Some forecasts are saying more than an inch of rain. Augusta National does have the SubAir system under a lot of the course, and those machines will be working overtime to try and keep the course dry and playable. It’s going to be tough, though. A lengthy delay feels very much on the table at some point.

Sunday looks slightly better. If there’s going to be rain, it’s going to come in the morning. If, by miracle, they can get the first three rounds in by Saturday night, the early-morning rain won’t be an issue with leaders typically going off close to 3 p.m. ET. However, if they do have to finish the third round — or perhaps even play the whole thing — Sunday, then it gets tricky.

There hasn’t been a Monday finish since 1983 — 40 years! You have to imagine the Masters and Augusta National will do everything in their power to make sure this tournament ends on the weekend. We’ll see.

The golf course undeniably will play differently than intended. The Masters wants firm and fast, but if it rains as much as expected, that will be a pipe dream. The softer conditions theoretically should favor longer hitters, especially off the tee. Those crispy fairways won’t be running the way they usually do, and where your ball lands might be where it comes to rest. Names like Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Jon Rahm and Keith Mitchell come to mind as players who hit a mile off the tee who might have that advantage.

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However, the wet, sloppy conditions also increase the chances of mudballs. In a typical PGA Tour event, the Tour would let players lift, clean and place. The Masters has never done that, forcing players to play it down as it lies (to the chagrin of the players). That could lead to conditions at least somewhat resembling what we saw in 2020 when COVID-19 forced the Masters to be played in the fall for the first time.

Dustin Johnson, who won the 2020 Masters, explained in an interview with TaylorMade last year that mudballs were a major factor all week. That adds some unpredictability to the approach game and makes it slightly more difficult to hit greens, even from the fairway. So it turns into a bit of push and pull. On one hand, the greens are softer and theoretically easier to hold. On the other hand, a mudball could send an approach shot off-target and force players to chip more (or at least just as much) as they would in benign conditions.

When you talk about players who can pair distance off the tee with elite short games, the usual suspects top the list. Rahm, once again, pops up. As does 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler. Jason Day, a popular pick to finally break through and reclaim his standing as one of the best players in the world, is masterful around the green while averaging more than 300 yards off the tee.

Regardless, trying to predict the weather might be easier than trying to predict how it will play out. Two things are for sure, though: Weather is going to be a major factor, and it’s going to change the way the Masters is played.