The hay isn’t quite in the barn, but you are running out of time to get down your bets, picks and predictions for the 2023 Masters.
The first round at Augusta National Golf Club is less than a day away, as one of the most eagerly anticipated golf tournaments in quite some time is just about here.
We have gone through the trends, the numbers, the models and the weather forecasts to come away with a handful of Masters picks and predictions.
Here they are, based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds as of Wednesday morning.
Favorite to back: Rory McIlroy +700
There’s a very clear line on the betting board between McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (+700), Jon Rahm (+950) and the rest of the field beginning with Jordan Spieth at 17-1. While there might not be as much value, it’s hard to make a definitive argument that the winner won’t come from this trio. Scheffler was the early lean, but the forecast is getting more and more difficult to ignore. Wet weather will change how the course plays, and it’s going to put an even greater emphasis on distance. Scheffler and Rahm can both bomb it, of course, but no one is longer than McIlroy. But it’s what McIlroy struggles with the most — wedge play and short game — that might not factor as much on a relatively soggy course. Augusta National is going to do all it can to keep the course dry and firm, but it can only do so much. Softer greens will keep more approach shots on the green, allowing a player like McIlroy to hold the putting surface more often. And, quite frankly, he’s just due. Even Tiger Woods knows it’s inevitable McIlroy adds a green jacket at some point. Why not this week?
Favorite to fade: Justin Thomas +2100
Thomas’ history with Augusta National is rather strange. He’s one of the most talented golfers of his generation, and he has a diverse bag of tricks that allows him to play any shot from any lie or angle. He’s arguably the best short-game player on the Tour. Yet, he has just two top-10 finishes in seven Masters. The 13th hole has been strangely difficult for him, and it might not get much easier with the added yardage this year. There’s also some chatter about a potential injury for JT. He definitely could win, but there are definitely more than five players in the field who should have shorter odds than him, and it just doesn’t feel like enough value at that number.
Tiger Woods to make the cut? Yes -190 (No +148)
Woods almost certainly won’t win the Masters. It’s not surprising, though, to see his make-the-cut number steamed up as the week has gone on. He made the cut last year, and he said Tuesday his game is in a better place this year. He’s far from healthy, though. McIlroy noted Woods has the skill and know-how to score well here, but his body holding up for four rounds is far from certain. Still, when it comes to making the cut at the Masters, it’s largely just addition and subtraction, assuming Woods doesn’t shoot an 80 or something. There are 88 players in the field. The top 65 and ties make the weekend. There are also seven amateurs in the field, who could struggle to get under the number. Similarly, no disrespect to the Sandy Lyles and Larry Mizes of the world, but there are a lot of past champions in the field who almost certainly will miss the cut. Woods just has to keep it on the rails for two days (with a favorable tee time draw, no less) to get to the weekend. Then, he could have a rough go of it on Saturday and Sunday.
First-round leader: Sungjae Im +3300
A year ago, Im shot a first-round 67 to lead the Masters after the first round. Why not two years in a row? Im has some great course history. He sandwiched a missed cut in 2021 with a second-place finish at the 2020 Masters (in the fall) and an eighth-place finish last year that proved the ’20 finish wasn’t solely a product of the fall tournament. Im also is right on the cusp of morning-wave tee times, with some tough conditions perhaps playing a role late Thursday. He comes in ranked sixth on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average.
Long shot to watch: Keith Mitchell +12000
It’s hard to find value in the middle of the betting board, where a lot of previously big numbers have been depressed by betting action. The 75-1 Corey Conners numbers are nowhere to be found by this point. So, we’re going even deeper with Mitchell, a Georgia boy who has shown flashes of brilliance early in 2023. He does everything pretty well and is getting results, like his fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach and top-five at the star-studded Genesis. The short game runs hot and cold, but again, the rain might neutralize that. Mitchell is super long off the tee and has a relatively high ball flight. The left miss is always in play, and that’s particularly bad at Augusta, but he has straightened it out in his last few starts. The +650 top-10 finish also jumps off the page this week.
