We might be due for a long-shot winner at the 2023 Masters.
Golf’s first major is finally here, with the world’s best golfers set to tee it up at Augusta National Golf Course this week. Handicapping the Masters is strange, though. We know there’s a group of players over the years — Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson — who are threats to contend whenever they’re in the field. However, we see breakthroughs from time to time.
Two years ago, Hideki Matsuyama cemented his career by capturing the green jacket, and he did so at 60-1. From 2016 to 2018, the trio of winners (Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett) went off at no better than 30-1.
Those sorts of long shots do well to balance out those less surprising wins. Scottie Scheffler last season capped a historic run by winning at 12-1, Dustin Johnson finally got his green jacket in the fall of 2020 at 10-1, and Woods’ fifth green jacket came at 14-1 in 2019.
All of this is to say nothing should surprise you at Augusta National, which means there are a whole lot of players in the 88-man field who are live to win this thing. Here are some 50-1 or longer long shots we’re considering as we make our 2023 Masters picks.
Shane Lowry (60-1, DraftKings Sportsbook): The Masters has its own blog (go figure, right?), largely repurposing articles from its annual magazine. One recently uploaded article looked at the importance of approach when it comes to having success at the Masters. That’s nothing earth-shattering, but veteran golf analyst Justin Ray had an interesting discovery. He says that since 2015, 36% of champions’ overall strokes gained came from approach play, while around the green accounted for 15%. After running a quick model heavily weighing those stats, Lowry ranks 17th among the entire field over the 12 rounds. That’s not just small sample size, either. Lowry’s approach game is elite, and his around-the-green is serviceable. Putting is a major issue, but course knowledge typically makes up for that at Augusta; if Matsuyama can win here, any bad putter can. Lowry can go low here; he fired two rounds in the 60s last year on the way to tying for third place.
Tommy Fleetwood (70-1, FanDuel Sportsbook): OK, so he’s never won on American soil, but Fleetwood certainly checks those aforementioned boxes, ranking in the top five when isolating just for recent iron and around-the-green play. He’s largely been good at majors, too. He finished fourth at The Open Championship, fifth at the PGA Championship and 14th at the Masters last season. The overall Masters record is decent, making the cut in all starts but his debut with three top-20 finishes.
Patrick Reed (75-1, Caesars): The LIV Golf element to this week is simply fascinating. It’s really the first reunion since a chunk of legitimate stars left the PGA Tour for the new league. LIV competition is, um, questionable at best, with the 54-hole, no-cut tournaments. It’s hard to back any of those guys and feel good about it, mainly because we just haven’t seen a ton of them against the world’s best. If any of the LIV golfers not named Cameron Smith or Dustin Johnson were to have a big week, it might be Reed. He feels comfortable in Augusta, for sure, and he certainly has all the characteristics of a player who wins the Masters. Makes sense, too, because he has won the Masters. He also has a chip permanently attached to his shoulder, so he’ll be as motivated as ever to flip over the table this week. The number is already moving; Reed was 90-1 as recently as the Friday before Masters week.
Tiger Woods (85-1, FanDuel): It’s hard to find any value on Tiger at this point, but 85-1 on the greatest to ever do it makes sense as a purely recreational bet, especially for those wondering what to do with a free $25 bet or something like that.
Tom Hoge (150-1, FanDuel): When right, there might not be a better ball striker in golf right now than Hoge. The problem is, he’s a little inconsistent. He certainly fits the profile, ranking in the top 10 in the field in approach, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance and putting of 25 feet or more (important for lag putting) over the last 12 rounds. DataGolf.com’s course fit tool also gives the Plantation Course at Kapalua as the No. 1 comp for Augusta National; Hoge finished tied for third there at the Tournament of Champions in January. He has solid form coming in, finishing third at The Players where he set the TPC Sawgrass course record in the third round and also finished 14th at the Genesis, another elite-field event. Granted, those two finishes were sandwiched by missed cuts, so it’s boom or bust.
Danny Willett (225-1, Caesars): If you want long shots, we’re giving you a long shot. Admittedly, Willett is a better top-10 or first-round leader play. But 225-1 for a former champion who’s actually playing pretty well is tough to resist. Willett hasn’t finished worse than 34th in his last four Tour starts, gaining at least 1.8 strokes on the field on approach in three of four. He’s brilliant around the green and he can get hot with the putter. Despite not having much pop in the driver, he finished 12th last year, 25th in 2020 and obviously won it in 2011. At the very least, keep an eye on the top-10, top-20, etc. markets. FanDuel currently has him at +1100 for a top-10 finish.
