Red Sox Weekend Warmup: Brewers Series Could Reveal Boston’s True Colors

A stiff test awaits the Boston Red Sox in their second road trip of the 2023 season.

The Red Sox first travel to Milwaukee for three games against the Brewers, who entered Friday with the second-best record in Major League Baseball (14-5), and then visit Baltimore for three games with the Orioles (11-7), who recently found their footing while taking care of business versus shaky competition (Oakland Athletics, Chicago White Sox and Washington Nationals).

Boston went 3-4 in its first road trip of 2023, sweeping the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park before dropping four straight to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. And the jury remains out on just how good (or not good) the Red Sox have the potential to be this season.

The Red Sox just went 5-2 on their most recent homestand at Fenway Park, a solid showing on the heels of their disastrous series in St. Petersburg. They took three of four from the Mike Trout-/Shohei Ohtani-led Los Angeles Angels (9-10), with their lone loss coming in a soggy Patriots’ Day matinee, and two of three from the Minnesota Twins (11-8), who enter the weekend still atop the American League Central standings.

Yet, it’s been difficult to get a good read on this Red Sox team. Not only have there been so many moving parts, with injuries playing a factor. Boston’s season also has been filled with both positives and negatives to this point, offering reasons for optimism and cause for skepticism. It’s all reflected in the Red Sox’s record, which sits at an even .500 ahead of this weekend’s visit to American Family Field.

Fortunately, the upcoming schedule could reveal a lot about the Red Sox, both because of the tough competition and the projected starting pitching matchups. Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello are expected to take the ball for Boston on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, and it’s not hyperbolic to say the long-term success (or lack thereof) of the Red Sox’s rotation this season could hinge on those two up-and-coming hurlers.

Red Sox odds (4/21)*
To win World Series: +7500
To win American League: +4000
To win AL East: +3500
To make playoffs: +460

The Red Sox’s recent stretch against the Angels and Twins wasn’t enough to convince oddsmakers they’ve turned a corner. While Boston’s World Series odds held firm at FanDuel Sportsbook since our last check-in, the club’s other futures odds dipped. The Red Sox had been +3000 to win the American League, +2500 to win the AL East and +420 to make the playoffs. As such, this represents a decent opportunity to buy low if you believe in the 2023 Red Sox.

A $100 wager on the Red Sox to win the American League now could net you a $4,000 profit, as opposed to a potential $3,000 payout if you made the same bet last Friday. Timing and finding the best number remain paramount to sports betting.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Probable pitchers
— Friday, April 21 (8:10 p.m. ET at Brewers): Nick Pivetta, RHP (0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta, RHP (2-1, 3.18 ERA)

— Saturday, April 22 (7:10 p.m. ET at Brewers): Garrett Whitlock, RHP (1-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Wade Miley, LHP (2-1, 1.50 ERA)

— Sunday, April 23 (2:10 p.m. ET at Brewers): Brayan Bello, RHP (0-1, 16.88 ERA) vs. Corbin Burners, RHP (2-1, 4.76 ERA)

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Storylines to watch
1. Is Alex Verdugo’s breakout for real?
Verdugo has been awesome this season, slashing .338/.407/.481 with two home runs and eight RBIs through 20 games (86 plate appearances). And the advanced metrics back up his hot start, with the 26-year-old showing improved plate discipline and making hard contact more consistently. His expected batting average (xBA) ranks in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant. Perhaps most encouraging: Verdugo has been really solid in right field, a somewhat surprising development given the defensive hiccups he endured in recent years. He ranks in the 94th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA).

2. Is Jarren Duran (finally) here to stay?
Duran, equipped with a new stance and new swing, looks like a totally different player. He seems more comfortable in the batter’s box, with his hands lower and no leg kick, and it’s led to better results at the major-league level. The 26-year-old outfielder went 5-for-13 with five RBIs in four games (17 plate appearances) since his call-up. Small sample size? Sure. But he’s positioning himself to where it’ll be difficult to send him back down to Triple-A Worcester if he keeps performing at a high level.

3. Can Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello settle into a groove?
Whitlock was excellent in his second start off the injured list, allowing only one run on three hits over seven innings last Sunday against the Angels. The Red Sox surely are hopeful he carries that momentum into his third outing, as finding consistency will go a long way toward ending the debate over whether Whitlock is better equipped for the rotation or the bullpen. Meanwhile, Bello will look for a similar rebound in his second start of 2023, as the 23-year-old struggled in a rain-soaked debut Monday. The bad news for Bello? His opposition doesn’t get any easier after facing Ohtani on Patriots’ Day. He’s scheduled to square off with Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, this Sunday.