What Are Chances Jets’ Aaron Rodgers Trade Completely Backfires?

Aaron Rodgers almost certainly will make the Jets a better football team in 2023. In fact, once he takes his first snap in a New York uniform, he’ll become the best player the franchise has ever seen.

From that standpoint, it’s easy to see why the Jets were comfortable parting with so much to acquire the four-time MVP from the Packers. The blockbuster trade, expected to become official later this week, checks the final, most important box for the up-and-coming Jets: quarterback.

New York had one of the league’s more talented roster last season but still managed to miss the playoffs. That’s because Zach Wilson continued to look like a draft bust when healthy, while Mike White and Joe Flacco played about as well as you’d expect those two to play. Bringing in Rodgers, without having to subtract from the roster, makes the Jets a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

That doesn’t make it a sure thing, though. Rodgers is an aging quarterback, who has been rather open about his own career uncertainty moving forward. The Jets most notably gave up a second-round pick this year and a pick next year that almost certainly will become a first-rounder, as it’s reportedly based on snap count. Rodgers will play, and if things go sideways at all, New York could be sending a decent first-round pick to Green Bay next season.

“(Rodgers is a) descending player who didn’t want to be (with the Packers) and will probably retire if things don’t go well,” an unnamed NFL executive told The Athletic’s Jeff Howe. “I could see this blowing up in the Jets’ faces.”

It’s not hard to see how that could happen. Rodgers turns 40 in December and showed real signs of decline in 2022. His completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, touchdown rate and interception rate were all worse than his career marks. His 39.3 QBR was by far the worst of his career; the previous low had been 52.5.

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Granted, it wasn’t all Rodgers’ fault. He was playing with a broken thumb, and the Packers’ supporting cast paled in comparison to what he’ll have in New York. But again, when you factor in his age, it’s hard to say with any level of certainty that Rodgers will roll out of bed and once again play at an MVP level. Not to mention, as good as his arsenal of weapons might be, Rodgers will have to hit the ground running and acquaint himself with an entirely new organization after 18 years in Green Bay. These are no sure things, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see growing pains.

The Jets probably think Rodgers doesn’t need to play at that MVP level for them to be successful. His 2022 performance probably would have been more than enough to get the Jets in the playoffs, if he were putting up those sorts of numbers in Gotham.

The issue, though, is that just getting to the playoffs is not good enough. This is a deal made to win a Super Bowl. And even with Rodgers playing at an MVP level, the Super Bowl is no sure thing for the Jets. This might be the most competitive division Rodgers has been a part of in his career. After years of beating up on the Bears and Lions, Rodgers now will be tasked with solving defenses led by Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio or having to match the offensive output of Josh Allen and the Bills.

Even if Rodgers and the Jets successfully maneuver that minefield and make the playoffs, that’s another brutal test to pass. The AFC is absolutely loaded, and it’s hard to see Rodgers and the Jets going into Arrowhead and beating Patrick Mahomes and the Jets or even toppling Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That’s not even considering Rodgers has laid an absolute egg in his last two gotta-have-it games in an embarrassing 2022 playoff loss to the 49ers and this past year’s Week 18 stinker at home against an already eliminated Detroit team with a chance to get Green Bay into the playoffs.

Basically, this is a one-year shot to complete one of the most difficult tasks in all of professional sports. It’s something the Jets haven’t done in 50-plus years, so that desperation is tangible, and if you have a chance to get a Hall of Fame quarterback, you typically should take it. The Jets more than anyone, though, should know how things don’t always go according to plan.