Four Bold Red Sox Predictions For Second Half Of 2023 MLB Season

The Boston Red Sox have been predictably unpredictable this season.

The last couple of years featured both highs and lows, with the Red Sox advancing to the American League Championship Series in 2021 before stumbling to a last-place finish in 2022, and it, therefore, was difficult to place expectations on Boston ahead of the 2023 campaign.

Now, with Opening Day three-plus months in the rearview mirror, we’re still trying to figure out the Red Sox’s lot in life, an exercise further complicated by Boston’s propensity for putting together lengthy winning streaks and extended losing streaks.

In theory, the Red Sox, who entered the Major League Baseball All-Star break with a 48-43 record, could be buyers or sellers before the Aug. 1 trade deadline. They’re nine games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays — while also trailing the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees — but just two games back of the AL’s third wild-card spot. A postseason berth is within striking distance.

The seesaw nature of Boston’s season makes prognosticating the second half a fool’s errand. But that never stopped us before. Why start now?

Here are four bold Red Sox predictions for the second half of the 2023 MLB season.

1. The trade deadline will result in a Red Sox reunion
Maybe it’s Joe Kelly. Maybe it’s Rich Hill. Maybe it’s Adam Ottavino. Heck, maybe it’s Eduardo Rodriguez, who can opt out of the three years and $49 million remaining on his contract beyond this season.

We won’t totally back ourselves into a corner by pinpointing a single name, but there are several former Red Sox players potentially available at this year’s trade deadline who could make sense for Boston’s roster. And this prediction also suggests the Red Sox will be buyers — or at least not totally sell — before the deadline as they push for the playoffs.

2. Tanner Houck will become a bullpen weapon — again
Houck was struck in the face by a line drive June 16. He underwent surgery to have a plate inserted June 27 and just started eating solid food July 6. There’s still a ways to go before he factors into Boston’s pitching plans — an August return seems possible — and even then, the Red Sox might plug him back into the rotation. It could depend on where the unit stands. He’s been used exclusively as a starter this season.

But Red Sox manager Alex Cora didn’t rule out Houck returning as a reliever, something that could expedite his comeback. It’s a scenario the Red Sox should at least consider, based on his up-and-down performance as a starter and the possibility of upgrading the rotation via the trade market. Houck in the past demonstrated the ability to be a game-changer in the ‘pen, capable of logging multiple innings and/or pitching in high-leverage spots.

3. Rafael Devers will reach the 40-homer mark for the first time in his career
Devers hit 20 home runs in Boston’s first 91 games. That means he must equal that total in 71 games in the second half. Tall task? Definitely. But still doable.

As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook had Devers’ season home run total set at over/under 35.5. His career high is 38 home runs, set back in 2021.

So, why the confidence in his ability to launch 40 in 2023? Well, it mostly lies in the advanced metrics, which suggest Devers has been relatively unlucky thus far and therefore is due for positive regression in the second half.

Devers’ .263 BABIP in the first half would be by far the lowest mark of his career. And one look at his Baseball Savant page shows Devers is continuing to make hard contact at an impressive clip despite his numbers being down in a weird year for the franchise third baseman.

Devers enters the second half ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) ranks in the 96th percentile. And his minus-2.4 home runs (20) to expected home runs (22.4) is tied for the 10th-largest negative differential among 482 major league hitters, further highlighting his lack of luck this season.

Would it surprise anyone if Devers goes off down the stretch?

4. Masataka Yoshida will be named American League Rookie of the Year
The odds aren’t in our favor. Josh Jung of the Texas Rangers — the starting third baseman for the American League in the All-Star Game — was the favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday, with +135 odds to bring home the hardware.

But consider this: Jung stumbled a bit in June, posting a .233/.301/.418 slash line with 31 strikeouts in 113 plate appearances, before heating back up to begin July. He ranks in the bottom 31% of the league in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate and walk rate. He’s a more traditional rookie — Yoshida turns 30 on Saturday and had ample professional experience in Japan — and is prone to wearing down in the second half.

Yoshida, meanwhile, has demonstrated excellent bat-to-ball skills and rode into the break on a heater, posting seven straight multihit games in which he batted .517 (15-for-29) with two home runs, five RBIs and a 1.326 OPS.

If the Red Sox make a run, Yoshida’s production could be instrumental, only solidifying his Rookie of the Year case. Grab his +290 odds while you can.