Why Cardinals Could Be Perfect Red Sox Trade Partner At Deadline

The Cardinals lost again Thursday night, this time to the surging Cubs, and now find themselves 10 games out of the National League wild card. They should be among the more active sellers ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and if the Red Sox are looking for a dance partner, St. Louis would make a lot of sense.

John Mozeliak has some big decisions to make ahead of the deadline, as the Cardinals have to decide just how all in they might want to go for a firesale. A complete tear-down might include the likes of Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. What’s more likely — inevitable, probably — is the Cardinals sell off some lesser pieces to replenish on the fly.

That’s where a team like the Red Sox should have interest. Boston opens a three-game set with San Francisco on Friday night firmly entrenched in the playoff race. The Red Sox have won 15 of their last 20 games and look like a team that could make a push. They are going to start getting healthier over the next week or two, but they should also seek reinforcements.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said the team will look to add. Bloom mentioned a desire to add players with term on their contracts beyond 2023. However, the race is so wide open that the Red Sox should at least investigate the rental market. Bloom admitted the Sox, like just about every other contender, would be in the market for starting pitching.

One player who checks both those boxes in St. Louis is left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery. The big southpaw is 6-8 this season, but that win-loss record is more a reflection on the talent around him than his performance. He already has made 20 starts, averaging just under six innings each time he takes the ball. He is striking out slightly less than a batter per inning, but he doesn’t walk many batters, either. Montgomery has issued just 31 free passes this season. His 128 ERA+ would be the best of his career, so he’s really coming into his own in a walk year.

The website “Quality of Pitch Baseball” does exactly what it says: ranks quality of pitchers from big leaguers. According to its metrics, Montgomery’s overall quality of pitch is in between the “great” and “excellent” threshold this season, with his sinker being especially good. Because he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, Montgomery’s ability to induce weak contact is key. Getting weak contact on the ground would be imperative to success at Fenway Park, especially for a left-hander.

There is an obvious caveat to that, though: Boston’s defense isn’t very good. The Red Sox are by far last in all of baseball in outs above average. However, if Bloom wanted to kill two birds with one stone, the Cardinals could help in that regard, too.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Cardinals in addition to Montgomery plan on trading shortstop Paul DeJong. When Xander Bogaerts signed in San Diego prior to the season, DeJong was on the short list of potential replacements in the trade market, but nothing materialized. It might be worth looking into now, though. After a miserable 2022 season, DeJong is providing league-average offense this season, which is more than the Red Sox can say they have received at the position. He has a contract option for next season, but that’s a team-exercised option with an affordable buyout.

What’s especially attractive about DeJong in this regard is his defense. He ranks seventh among all qualified shortstops in outs above average this season and is tied for sixth in runs prevented. By comparison, now former Red Sox utility man Kiké Hernández ranked 35th or 36th among qualified shortstops in both.

The Red Sox do have Trevor Story coming back sooner than later and have said he will play shortstop. However, the defense would be better in the short term with DeJong at short and Story at second, especially not knowing how healthy Story’s surgically repaired throwing arm will be. Story’s athleticism makes him a borderline-elite second baseman and negates his biggest weakness which is his throwing — and that was true before the surgery. Those two up the middle, assuming relative health, would be a massive upgrade over what the Red Sox have done for the majority of the season.

Montgomery is one of the better available starting pitchers, and DeJong could be a fairly valuable trade chip, too. They wouldn’t come at bargain prices. However, the Red Sox have done well rebuilding the farm system. They have enough depth that they could have enough mid-level prospects — especially players who could have tough 40-man roster decisions looming — to get a deal done while not depleting the system.