Maybe Patriots Have Legit Shot At Top NFL Draft Pick After All

As bad as things are for the Patriots, it’s hard to envision them landing a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on record alone. And Bill Belichick isn’t going to tank on purpose.

Nevertheless, New England still might be in a position to win the Caleb Williams or Marvin Harrison Jr. sweepstakes.

The Patriots will enter Week 6 with a 1-4 record, which is tied with six other teams for second-worst in the NFL. However, due to strength-of-schedule tiebreakers, New England would hold the No. 5 pick if the season ended today.

Here’s the current top 10 order through five weeks:

1. Chicago Bears (1-4; via 0-5 Carolina Panthers)
2. Chicago Bears (1-4)
3. Denver Broncos (1-4)
4. Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
5. New England Patriots (1-4)
6. New York Giants (1-4)
7. Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
8. Green Bay Packers (2-3)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)
10. Arizona Cardinals (1-3; via 2-3 Houston Texans)

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Patriots don’t finish with the worst record and want either a quarterback, receiver or offensive tackle at the top of the draft. They might be able to address those needs with an elite prospect either by landing a top-10 pick or, more likely, trading up to the top of the board.

In past years, New England understandably was reluctant to trade up for a top pick. When your first-round pick lies somewhere between Nos. 20 and 30, you need to give up a lot more for a top-five pick than teams sitting somewhere in the top 10. But this year, there’s a path for the Patriots to, say, finish at No. 6 and package that pick, along with just another first-rounder and second-day pick, to move into the top three, potentially as high as No. 1. New England actually could be forced to part with an established player.

For example, here’s what the Panthers gave up last winter to pry the No. 1 overall pick from the Bears:

— WR D.J. Moore
— 2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall)
— 2023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall)
— 2024 first-round pick (currently No. 1 overall)
— 2025 second-round pick

Would the Patriots, regardless of whether Belichick still is in charge, be comfortable paying that price? Maybe not. But they might be more willing to do it if the price came down via having a pick higher than ninth overall.

No matter which way you slice it, the Patriots are trending toward being in striking range of a top-three selection. And they’d have a slew of tantalizing prospects to choose from, most of which would fill immediate and pressing needs.

Here’s Mel Kiper’s most recent top 10 prospect list:

1. QB Caleb Williams, USC
2. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
3. QB Drake Maye, UNC
4. TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
5. QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
6. OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
7. WR Rome Odunze, Wasington
8. WR Keon Koleman, Florida State
9. OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama
10. OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Now, here’s the latest mock draft from Walter Football, which left out Sanders due to the apparent likelihood of his returning to college:

1. QB Caleb Williams, USC
2. DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
3. QB Drake Maye, UNC
4. QB Quinn Ewers, Texas
5. (Patriots) WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
6. WR Keon Koleman, Florida State
7. DE Jared Verse, Florida State
8. OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
9. OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
10. CB Kalen King, Penn State

Obviously, the top prize is Williams. He’s viewed as a generational talent and the best quarterback prospect to come along since Trevor Lawrence. Many evaluators believe he’s better than Lawrence. However, even if New England can’t land Williams, it still could have a realistic shot at picking Maye or Harrison.

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But let’s stick with Williams. And let’s say the Patriots are done with Mac Jones and are dead-set on drafting Williams and making him their quarterback of the future. The problem is the cost could skyrocket, and New England could be bidding against multiple teams who also want a new quarterback.

The Broncos almost certainly are ready for Russell Wilson’s successor, despite his contract being an albatross. The Vikings might be headed for a full rebuild, which could include trading Kirk Cousins before the deadline. The Giants have a lot of money tied up in Daniel Jones, but he looks terrible. The Cardinals are tough to figure out, as they just gave a huge contract to Kyler Murray — but they’d be justified in trading him. The Raiders aren’t married to the Jimmy Garoppolo experience.

However, the Bears are the real wild card, as it’s entirely possible they finish with the top two picks in the draft. The question then becomes: Would they double down on Justin Fields, or draft Williams?

If the answer is the former, a bidding war would ensue. If the answer is the latter, teams like the Patriots would need to shift their focus toward Maye, Harrison — or whoever.

That wouldn’t be quite as fun as drafting Williams, but it also wouldn’t be a bad consolation.

Ultimately, there’s a chance the Patriots kinda-sorta figure things out this season and land somewhere outside the top 10. And maybe they still find someone like Ewers in that range, as they did in 2021 when they took Jones 15th overall.

But the door also is wide open for a truly franchise-altering draft night.