How Patriots Loss, Week 15 Results Affected NFL Draft Order

The race for the top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft tightened Sunday.

The New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders all lost their Week 15 games, maintaining their respective positions at Nos. 2, 3 and 4 in the draft order, respectively.

The last-place Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, upset the Atlanta Falcons to improve to 2-12 on the season. Their win upped the chances of a team like the 3-11 Patriots or 3-11 Cardinals leapfrogging them to land the top pick, though Carolina (which traded its first-round selection to Chicago) remained the favorite to finish with the NFL’s worst record.

Washington, which has lost five straight since beating the Patriots in Week 9, sits at 4-10.

The league’s five five-win teams (Bears, New York Jets, New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans) all lost Thursday or Sunday. Those clubs will enter Week 16 two games behind the Patriots and Cardinals in the draft order.

With only Monday night’s game between the Philadephia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks remaining, here’s an updated look at that order through 15 weeks, via Tankathon:

1. Chicago Bears (via 2-12 Carolina Panthers; .519 strength of schedule)
2. New England Patriots (3-11; .523 SOS)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-11; .557 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders (4-10; .515 SOS)
5. Chicago Bears (5-9; .466 SOS)
6. New York Jets (5-9; .511 SOS)
7. New York Giants (5-9; .511 SOS)
8. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9; .521 SOS)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-9; .532 SOS)
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8; .424 SOS)

Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick. The Patriots own a substantial SOS edge over the Cardinals but would lose potential tiebreakers to the Panthers, Commanders, Bears, Jets, Giants and Chargers if the season ended Monday.

The Patriots, who lost the Kansas City Chiefs 27-17 at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, will travel to Denver next weekend for a Christmas Eve matchup with the Broncos. They’ll then visit the Buffalo Bills on New Year’s Eve before closing the season with a home matchup against the Jets that could have major draft implications.

If the Patriots lose out, they’re guaranteed to receive the first or second overall pick, depending on Carolina’s remaining results. Go 1-2, and they can finish no worse than fourth in the draft order. After Sunday’s late-afternoon games, ESPN Analytics gave the Patriots a 52% chance of picking in the top two.

A 2-1 or 3-0 finish could cause New England’s pick to tumble into the No. 5-to-10 range or, in a worst-case scenario, potentially as low as the teens.