No. 1 Draft Pick Back On Table For Patriots After Panthers Beat Falcons

Just like that, the Patriots are back in play for the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Week 15 began with a two-game gap between 3-10 New England and the 1-12 Panthers, who will send their first-round pick to the Chicago Bears. But the Patriots suffered a home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday while Carolina scored a 9-7 home win over the Atlanta Falcons.

That means New England now is just one game back from the No. 1 pick with three weeks remaining. And with the Patriots and Panthers essentially tied in strength of schedule (the first draft tiebreaker), it’s entirely possible New England would claim the first pick if it finishes with the same record as Carolina.

Here’s the updated top five with games remaining on the Week 15 slate:

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-12 Carolina Panthers (.523 SOS)
2. New England Patriots, 3-11 (.524 SOS)
3. Arizona Cardinals, 3-10 (.553 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders, 4-9 (.515 SOS)
5. Chicago Bears, 5-9 (.470 SOS)

At the time of this writing, the Commanders were visiting the Los Angeles Rams while the Cardinals were hosting the San Francisco 49ers. A Washington victory is the only thing that could change the top-five order, as it would cause the Bears and the New York Jets to move up to spots four and five, respectively.

As for the Patriots, these are the three simplest ways to look at their draft outlook:

1. If New England loses two of its next three games, it’s guaranteed a top-four pick (top three if the Commanders get another win).
2. If the Patriots lose the rest of their games, they’re guaranteed a top-three pick
3. While things technically can change, the SOS gap between the Patriots and Cardinals is wide enough that New England almost certainly would win the tiebreaker. So, losing out likely would net the Patriots at least the second pick.

The Patriots will finish their season with games against the Denver Broncos (road), Buffalo Bills (road) and Jets (home). The Panthers will close out with games against Green Bay Packers (home), Jacksonville Jaguars (away) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home).

New England and Denver will kick off next Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET.