Why Red Sox’s Reported Deal With Lucas Giolito Marks Win For Boston

The Red Sox improved their pitching Friday by reportedly agreeing to a two-year contract with free agent starter Lucas Giolito.

That, in and of itself, is a win for Boston.

No, the Red Sox didn't land Shohei Ohtani, a generational two-way superstar, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 25-year-old with the potential to become an ace in Major League Baseball after a decorated career in Japan.

Both players chose to join the Los Angeles Dodgers for a whole bunch of money, thinning a top-heavy free agency class that already took a hit when pitchers Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray signed with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively.

And no, Giolito wasn't the best starter remaining on the open market as of Friday evening. That honor belonged to Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, or Jordan Montgomery, a fellow left-hander whose stock seemingly has risen thanks to his recent playoff heroics and overall reliability.

But the Red Sox needed to start somewhere in their quest to build a formidable rotation for 2024. So, why not Giolito in what amounts to a low-risk, high-reward move?

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Let's be clear: Giolito wasn't good in 2023. He went 8-15 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.313 WHP in 33 starts (184 1/3 innings) split between the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians. Only Lance Lynn allowed more home runs (44) than Giolito (41). And only three qualified starters (Jordan Lyles, Lynn and Patrick Corbin) had a worse FIP.

Throw in a relatively underwhelming 2022 (11-9 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.435 WHIP in 30 starts spanning 161 2/3 innings), and it's understandable if you're skeptical about the Red Sox putting their eggs in the Giolito basket.

Now, consider this: Giolito was an All-Star with the White Sox in 2019, a season in which he went 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA, a 3.43 FIP and a 1.064 WHIP in 29 starts (176 2/3 innings). He finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting, jumpstarting a run of excellence that's perhaps more indicative of the right-hander's true talent.

Giolito finished seventh in Cy Young voting in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and 11th in 2021. During that three-season stretch from 2019 to 2021, Giolito ranked seventh among qualified MLB starters in fWAR (11.3), trailing only Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, Lynn and Charlie Morton. He ranked sixth in strikeout percentage (30.7%).

Obviously, there's no guarantee Giolito, a first-round pick in 2012, will revert to that pitcher with Boston. Sometimes, a fresh start helps. Sometimes, it doesn't. But he's only 29 years old and still flashed an ability to miss bats last season, with his overall numbers largely inflated by an awful second half.

Context is important. Giolito is a good bet to bounce back -- given his age, durability and intact skills -- and the Red Sox won't exactly be hamstrung if he doesn't. His deal reportedly is worth $38.5 million over two years and includes an opt-out after the first season. Plus, Boston didn't need to surrender draft-pick compensation to sign him, as he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of being traded midseason.

The structure of Giolito's contract is such that he can test free agency again next offseason if he thrives in 2024. If that were to happen, the Red Sox then could extend a qualifying offer, positioning themselves to receive draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, or even re-sign him to a new deal if the match proves fruitful for both sides.

Heck, Boston theoretically could trade Giolito for assets before this year's deadline if he pitches well and the Red Sox fall out of contention, though that's certainly a break-glass scenario the franchise would like to avoid.

All told the Red Sox are buying low on a pitcher with a solid track record outside of a tumultuous year that depressed his market. While that might not move the needle quite as much as signing, say, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell and/or Montgomery, it's a very reasonable gamble for a team seeking both stability and a spark from its rotation in 2024.