What Analytics Now Say Of Patriots’ Chances For No. 1 Overall Pick

After Week 10, the Patriots had a 4.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s analytics department. New England’s projected draft slot was 5.4.

Well, things have changed — for the better.

Losers of five straight, the 2-10 Patriots now have a 19.4% chance of securing the first overall pick, per ESPN’s Seth Walder. New England’s projected draft spot now sits at 2.7.

The Patriots seized control of the No. 2 pick after losing to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and watching the Arizona Cardinal upset the Pittsburgh Steelers. If New England wins fewer than two games the rest of the season, it’s guaranteed to finish with no worse than a top-three selection.

The Bears, who will receive the Panthers’ first-round pick, currently own the No. 1 overall selection. Carolina is 1-11 and has a 75.9% chance of landing the top pick and sending it to Chicago.

Earning a top-two pick obviously would be a huge development for the Patriots, who could be staring at an offseason of immense change. The franchise could use the pick to select Mac Jones’ successor or leverage it to acquire other valuable assets.

The Patriots will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.