When it comes to the Super Bowl MVP, odds are — quite literally — Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes will walk away with the hardware Sunday night.
Purdy and Mahomes will lead the 49ers and Chiefs, respectively, as the men playing the most important position in sports for the biggest game in sports when Super Bowl LVIII kicks off in Las Vegas.
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As such, Mahomes and Purdy are the clear-cut MVP favorites at every single sportsbook.
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Super Bowl MVP odds (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mahomes +150
Purdy +210
If you think the Chiefs are going to win the game outright, the sharpest play might be to bet Mahomes to win the MVP at +150 instead of the +110 moneyline. If Kansas City wins, he’s probably going to be the MVP.
It’s not as clear-cut for Purdy, but a 2-1 bet over laying money for the Niners to win is sensical, too.
We’re certainly not in position to give betting advice, so do whatever you want, but it is the Super Bowl, and a lot of recreational bettors might want something with a little more return on investment. Like, for example, how about a long-shot MVP pick?
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First, let’s get this out of the way. The long shots are long shots for a reason. Here are the Super Bowl MVP winners and their odds dating back to Super Bowl 50, per Covers.com.
Patrick Mahomes (+130)
Cooper Kupp (+600)
Tom Brady (+187)
Patrick Mahomes (+110)
Julian Edelman (+2000)
Nick Foles (+325)
Tom Brady (+150)
Von Miller (+2200)
That Von Miller name — and number — certainly jumps off the page. Miller became the 10th defensive player in the Super Bowl’s 50-year history to take home the award in 2016 for his performance in the Broncos’ win over the Panthers. The Denver linebacker recorded 2.5 sacks with a couple of forced fumbles.
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As NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle kicked around this week on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, there are two defensive players (one from each side) in this Super Bowl who have that game-wrecking talent.
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The first is San Francisco All-Pro defensive end Nick Bosa, who is 80-1 to win Super Bowl MVP, and the second is Chiefs superstar Chris Jones, who checks in as a 110-1 long shot.
(The lines have moved since recording. Are we the reason for that? Who can say, really?)
As noted in the clip, Pro Football Focus likes the potential for both players to have big games. Certainly, Bosa or Jones could put up a stat line mirroring Miller, right?
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Bosa, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, had 10.5 regular-season sacks this year and is coming off his best game of the season. In San Fran’s NFC title game win over Detroit, he racked up two sacks, three solo tackles and four QB hits. Jones, a two-time All-Pro, has 75.5 career sacks.
Is it likely Bosa or Jones wins Super Bowl MVP? Probably not. The odds suggest as much. But if you were to draft the two teams for a winner-take-all game, each of them would be drafted very, very high. They undoubtedly are two of the best players in football.
Undeniable historical data and trends says this award will likely go to a quarterback — or at the very least an offensive player. However, if the game plays out a certain way, and either Bosa or Jones plays up to his potential, a coffee bet on either could make for a nice little payout.
Featured image via Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports Images
