How Many Top-10 QBs Since 2010 Have Actually Been Good?

The NFL Combine has wrapped up, and the 2024 NFL Draft is less than two months away.

The quarterback class is exceptional this year, with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy all near locks to be picked in the first round. The teams slated to pick a signal-caller in the first round are undoubtedly looking for a franchise player to build their offense around.

What can history tell us about the quarterbacks selected within the Top-10 picks since 2010? We reviewed 29 quarterbacks selected over the past 14 years and assigned them “grades” of Good, Bad, Ugly, or Incomplete.

GOOD — A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and potential.

BAD — They have shown talent and potential, but they couldn’t turn into a good quarterback.

UGLY — A total bust, no other way around it.

INCOMPLETE — A quarterback who has yet to prove himself, mainly due to sample size.

Let this analysis highlight the unpredictability of the notable position that can make or break a franchise.

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GOOD
Cam Newton (2011, Pick No. 1) — Although Newton never won a Super Bowl, he earned the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honor in 2011 and league MVP in 2015 with the Carolina Panthers.

Andrew Luck (2012, Pick No. 1) — Luck made an immediate impact for the Indianapolis Colts in his first season when he set an NFL rookie record for the most passing yards with 4,374. Unfortunately for Luck and the Colts, injuries forced him to retire before the 2019 season.

Ryan Tannehill (2012, Pick No. 8) — Tannehill is borderline good, but he’s not exactly bad either. He has a career record of 81-70 with the Miami Dolphins and Tennesse Titans. He earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2019.

Jared Goff (2016, No. 1) — Goff led the Los Angeles Rams to their first playoff appearance in 13 years and their first Super Bowl appearance since 2001. After being traded to the Detroit Lions, he led the franchise to its first division title since 1993 and playoff win since 1991.

Carson Wentz (2016, Pick No. 2) — Although Wentz suffered a season-ending injury in 2017, he led the Philadelphia Eagles to an 11-2 record, which culminated in the team’s first Super Bowl victory.

Patrick Mahomes (2017, Pick No. 10) — Since breaking into the league, Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs to six AFC Championship appearances and four Super Bowls. He’s not only a three-time Super Bowl champion, but he was also named MVP in all three titles.

Baker Mayfield (2018, Pick No. 1) — Mayfield set the NFL rookie record for passing touchdowns while ending a 19-game winless streak for the Cleveland Browns. He also led the Browns to their first playoff appearance since 2002 and first postseason victory since 1994.

Josh Allen (2018, Pick No. 7) — Allen led the Buffalo Bills to their first division title and playoff win since 1995. He set the Bills franchise record for single-season passing yards and touchdowns that same year.

Kyler Murray (2019, No. 1) — In his first season with the Arizona Cardinals, Murray set several franchise rookie quarterback records and was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He led the Cardinals to their first playoff appearance in six years in 2021.

Joe Burrow (2020, Pick No. 1) — After an injury halted his rookie season, Burrow led the Cincinnati Bengals to their first postseason victory since 1990, earning him 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors.

Tua Tagovailoa (2020, Pick No. 5) — Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards in 2023 while guiding the Miami Dolphins to an 11-6 record that season.

Justin Hebert (2020, Pick No. 6) — Hebert won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2020 even though the Los Angeles Chargers finished 6-9 that season.

Trevor Lawrence (2021, Pick No. 1) — In 2022, Lawrence led the Jacksonville Jaguars to their first division title and playoff win since 2017. He was named to the Pro Bowl that same year.

CJ Stroud (2023, Pick No. 2) — Stroud earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, leading the Houston Texans to a 9-6 record. He won his first playoff appearance by defeating the Browns 45-14 before falling to the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional matchup.

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BAD
Sam Bradford (2010, Pick No. 1) — Even though Bradford earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, he never finished a season above .500 with an overall record of 34-48-1.

Jake Locker (2011, Pick No. 8) — Locker was the backup for the Tennesse Titans during his rookie season and became the starting quarterback in 2012. He abruptly retired following the 2014 season.

Robert Griffin III (2012, Pick No. 2) — Despite winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Griffin was plagued by injuries and was unable to duplicate the success he had that one year.

Bryce Young (2023, Pick No. 1) — In his rookie campaign for the Carolina Panthers, Young threw 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. The team finished 2-14 on the season.

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UGLY
Blaine Gabbert (2011, Pick N0. 10) — Drafted by the Jaguars, Gabbert’s rookie campaign wasn’t successful, finishing 4-10 that season. Gabbert has appeared in 69 NFL games with an overall record of 14-35. Ironically, he has two Super Bowl titles as a backup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 and the Chiefs in 2023.

Blake Bortles (2014, Pick No. 3) — Drafted by the Jaguars, Bortles started for Jacksonville from 2014 – 2018, going 24-49. His only winning season came in 2017, with a record of 10-6 and the franchise’s division title and AFC Championship game appearance since 1999.

Jameis Winston (2015, Pick No. 1) — Winston set several Buccaneers rookie records but only had one winning season during his tenure with Tampa Bay. He finished with an overall record of 28-42 with Tampa. The Buccaneers did not re-sign Winston after his rookie contract expired.

Marcus Mariota (2015, Pick No. 2) — Mariota’s rookie campaign with the Titans was underwhelming. He went 3-9 with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He strung together three winning seasons, before he was benched in favor of Tannenhill in 2019.

Mitchell Trubisky (2017, Pick No. 2) — Trubisky became the starter for the Chicago Bears during his rookie campaign after Mike Glennon was benched after a 1-3 start. He would finish the year with a 4-8 record. While Trubisky had a successful season in 2018, the Bears moved on from him at the end of his rookie contract due to inconsistent play.

Sam Darnold (2018, Pick No. 3) — Drafted by the Jets, Darnold was inconsistent during his tenure with New York. He finished with an overall record of 13-25 with an average quarterback rating of 78.2. Plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, the Jets traded Darnold to the Panthers.

Josh Rosen (2018, Pick No. 10) — Rosen went 3-10 with the Arizona Cardinals during his rookie campaign. He was traded to Miami the following season and released after an 0-3 record as a starter. In his career he has 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.

Zach Wilson (2021, Pick No. 2) — In three years with the Jets, Wilson has compiled a 12-21 record with 23 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. He was demoted to backup when New York signed Aaron Rodgers in 2023, but a season-ending injury to Rodgers forced Wilson back as the starting signal-caller. He finished the season with a 77.2 quarterback rating and a 4-7 record.

Daniel Jones (2019, Pick No. 6) — Jones took over as the starter for the New York Giants in his rookie campaign but finished the season 3-9. He had just one winning season with the Giants in 2022 (9-6-1) and had an overall record of 22-36-1 through 2023.

INCOMPLETE
Trey Lance (2021, Pick No. 3) — Lance was a backup behind Jimmy Garoppolo during his rookie and sophomore campaigns with the San Francisco 49ers before he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. He has appeared in eight games in the NFL and has a quarterback rating of 84.5. There isn’t enough sample size to put him in the other categories.

Anthony Richardson (2023, Pick No. 4) — After just four games into his rookie campaign with the Colts, Richardson missed the remainder of the season when he had shoulder surgery on Oct. 24. In the small sample size, Richardson threw three touchdowns and one interception.