It sure might not feel like baseball weather around here, and it's a little hard to believe, but the 2024 Red Sox season is already a week old.
The 5-2 Sox are idle Thursday after making the trip down California from Oakland to Anaheim where they open a three-game weekend series with the Angels on Friday night. As the record suggests, the first week of the season has been a good one for Alex Cora's upstart team; after Boston's sweep of the A's, only four teams in baseball have a better run differential.
Oakland might be historically bad, so it's important not to overreact to that dusting or a season-opening split in Seattle. It's still snowing in New England, a painful reminder this thing is just getting started. But we feel pretty confident making these declarations after seeing the first week of the Red Sox season.
1. Andrew Bailey is making a very immediate impact
You have to start with the pitching, especially the starters. After one turn and another Brayan Bello start through the rotation, the starting staff is among the best in baseball.
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Strikeouts per nine innings: 2nd
Walks per nine innings: 1st
FIP: 2nd
Wins above replacement: 2nd
So far, it's no accident, either. The Red Sox have made tangible changes under Bailey's watch. According to Fangraphs' pitch-type information, Sox starters are throwing four-seam fastballs just 34.2% of the time. Only Baltimore has thrown the pitch less. A year ago, the Red Sox threw four-seamers 48.6% of the time (11th in the bigs). The changes extend beyond just pitch usage, but it has been fascinating to see such a drastic difference year over year. The results have been tremendous.
2. Ceddanne Rafaela has game-changing, Gold Glove ability in center field
The 23-year-old is a freak athlete. Remarkably, Rafaela came up playing shortstop in addition to showcasing elite defense in the outfield. Now patrolling center field for the big club, his impeccable routes to batted balls have been on display through the first week. When Bailey, Craig Breslow and other Sox decision-makers talked about a commitment to run prevention, perhaps that was with the understanding they wouldn't have to worry about anything falling in with Rafaela in center. Rafaela is on another level defensively, compared to someone like Jarren Duran, and it probably helps Duran, too, who has played strong defense in left field and should benefit at the plate with fewer worries. Speaking of production at the plate, the Red Sox will need Rafaela (5-for-23) to hit at some point. Given how mature his defensive game is, though, it's easy to forget he barely has 115 career plate appearances under his belt.
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3. These Sox are athletic
Look at Boston up the middle. The Red Sox have Connor Wong as their No. 1 catcher, Trevor Story at shortstop and Rafaela in center. All three are athletic for their positions, and for as much trouble as Vaugh Grissom has had defensively in his young career, he's got undeniable athletic traits. It makes a difference. Story and Rafaela have certainly helped shore up the defense which was a major issue in 2023.
The base-running is much improved, too. Duran looks like someone who could steal at least 50 bases. Rafaela's speed and instincts were on display last season in Worcester, and he kept it up with the big club, turning pedestrian doubles into triples. The Sox right now ranks 13th in Fangraphs' base running metric, a year after finishing 26th and 27th the two prior seasons.
4. They'll have to hit better -- probably
Certainly, if the Red Sox rotation and bullpen are among the best in baseball all summer long, Boston can get by with average offense. That doesn't seem overly sustainable, especially with the relative lack of depth on the staff. It's surprising to see teams like Cleveland and Pittsburgh hit more home runs than the Red Sox. The .349 slugging percentage is 21st in the majors. Only five offenses are striking out more often. Getting back to Fenway Park will help, especially after starting the season in two pitcher-friendly ballparks. But it's something to keep an eye on as the season matures.
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5. Alex Cora still has it
The lingering contract situation doesn't seem to be bothering Cora. Despite his lame-duck status (for now), a reinvigorated Cora has a team playing in a way that reflects its manager's outlook. The skipper made a point of tweaking the team's spring training approach, and the club's early-season performance has justified those decisions so far. His in-game performance has been on the nose, too. Cora masterfully navigated an extra-innings win earlier this week in Oakland where he used every single position player on his roster while simultaneously pulling the right levers with his bullpen.
Featured image via Ross Cameron/USA TODAY Sports Images
