Four Scenarios Patriots Could Face In NFL Draft; How They Should Proceed

The Patriots ran through everything by now.

“We’re in the process of going through what everybody calls these simulations, and that’s been and will continue to be good exercises,” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel told reporters at Gillette Stadium last week. “It’s just running scenarios and what we would do based on those scenarios.”

During NESN’s “Foxboro Rush” podcast released Wednesday, George Balekji and I scripted four first-round scenarios that could play out when the 2025 NFL Draft begins Thursday. They’re likely among the countless scenarios Vrabel and company ran through themselves at One Patriot Place.

Let’s take a look:

Scenario 1: Cam Ward, Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are drafted with the first three picks and no team is interested in trading for No. 4; what player should the Patriots draft?

This is the chalk scenario, the one most expected to play out. In such a scenario, the Patriots should draft Will Campbell fourth overall. New England’s biggest need is offensive tackle, and the LSU product is regarded as the top offensive tackle in the class. Despite Campbell’s widely criticized arm length, Mike Vrabel and company back him as an offensive tackle. He’s going to at least start there and there’s a chance he remains there. Campbell’s athleticism allows him to make up for his lack of length and his floor is higher than any other offensive lineman.

Scenario 2: Ward, Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are drafted with the first three picks and no team is interested in trading for No. 4; what player should the Patriots draft?

If Carter slides past the Giants (No. 3), the Patriots should draft the blue-chip prospect. Carter is widely viewed as one of the two most talented players in the class. He’s an absolute menace off the edge, a violent pass rusher who would fit well on Vrabel’s defense.

“It was a fun tape to watch,” Vrabel said of Carter.

Scenario 3: Ward, Hunter and Carter are drafted with the first three picks and two teams are interested in trading for No. 4. The Raiders (Nos. 6, 37) and Saints (Nos. 9, 40) each have offered their first- and second-round picks for fourth overall. Should the Patriots trade back, and if so, with what team? Or should they stay put and draft a player at No. 4?

If the Patriots can trade back but stay within striking distance of the top talents, they should do so. In this scenario, a trade back with Las Vegas helps New England add another top-40 pick. If Campbell is on the board at sixth overall, the Patriots should select him. If not, New England should draft either linebacker Jalon Walker, offensive tackle Armand Membou or tight end Tyler Warren. They could later use 40 to trade back up for an offensive tackle o wide receiver, depending on what they do at 6.

Scenario 4: Ward, Hunter and Sanders are drafted with the first three picks and two teams are interested in trading for No. 4. The Raiders (Nos. 6, 37) and Cowboys (Nos. 12, 44, 149) are trying to move up with Ashton Jeanty and Carter still on the board. Should the Patriots trade back with either team? Or should they stay put and draft a player?

With Carter still available, the Patriots should stay put and draft him. While adding a top-40 pick from Las Vegas is enticing, it’s not worth bypassing on arguably the best player in the class. Dropping to sixth overall, after all, would mean the Patriots miss Carter and perhaps Campbell. Trading back with the Cowboys is the worst of these two deals despite the added Day 3 pick. New England wouldn’t be in position for Carter, Campbell and perhaps even Walker and Warren if it moved back to 12. Some evaluators believe there are only 10-12 first-round talents this year. New England can’t miss out on one of those.

For more on the conversation, check out NESN’s “Foxboro Rush” podcast on YouTube and Spotify.