NFL Week 5 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Hinges On Texans Finally Getting Right

We're not ready to chuck up a Hail Mary just yet, but we need our luck to turn around at some point.

Four weeks into our weekly best-bet parlay, and we're still looking for our first win. In Week 4, we didn't even really come close, hitting on just two of the four legs.

So, this week, we're lightening the load a little bit and going with just three games as we look to get back to even on the season.

Here's the best-bet parlay for Week 5.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens OVER 51 points
That's a high number when one side consists of a rookie quarterback going up against one of the NFL's top teams. But we like the pace with which Joe Burrow and the Bengals play. Cincinnati ranks sixth in seconds per play overall. Here's the thing: The Bengals, 13.5-point underdogs, probably will be trailing for much of this game. Well, they go even faster when trailing, ranked second in seconds per play when trailing by seven points or more. Baltimore's offense should score plenty, but don't be surprised if the Bengals light it up a bit, too.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 55.5 points
Huge number, sure, but we don't have the intestinal fortitude to bet any unders. Could we pass on this one? Sure. But we're willing to take a chance in large because neither defense inspires much confidence. Las Vegas ranks 30th in yards allowed after the catch, while only two teams have missed more tackles through four weeks than Kansas City.

Houston Texans to WIN OUTRIGHT vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It sounds like there was a borderline revolt in Houston that ultimately cost Bill O'Brien his job. There shouldn't be a ton of confidence in that change alone turning around Houston's season, but the Texans certainly are better than their 0-4 record indicates, right? They've had a brutal schedule to start the season, and this is a soft place to land against a mediocre-at-the-very-best Jaguars team.

Payout: $100 to win $410
Season: 0-4 (down $400)