NFL Week 5 Picks: Odds, Analysis And Predictions For Every Game
The show must go on -- for now, at least
It hasn’t been the smoothest sailing for the NFL through four weeks, but everyone has officially made it through a quarter of the 2020 season.
Well, almost everyone.
The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers got early bye weeks after last week’s game was postponed due to the Titans’ COVID-19 outbreak. Despite some optimism early in the week, more positive cases surfaced, and now Tennessee’s Week 5 game against the Buffalo Bills is up in the air.
The same could be said, albeit to a lesser extent, about the New England Patriots’s matchup with the Denver Broncos after Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore tested positive for the coronavirus.
Despite all of that, it’s full steam ahead for the rest of Week 5, and that means NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are here to make their weekly against-the-spread picks.
Here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 7-8 (31-31-1 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 4-11 (24-38-1)
Andre Khatchaturian: 9-6 (32-30-1)
Now, here are their Week 5 picks.
THURSDAY, OCT. 8
(-3.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Buccaneers. The Bucs have a whole bunch of injuries, but they still can get to 21 points, right? If that’s the case, I don’t have confidence in Chicago’s low-powered offense keeping pace.
Ricky: Buccaneers. Tom Brady never has lost a Thursday night game on short rest (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS). Tampa Bay is banged up offensively, but trust the more stable quarterback situation. Maybe this is the week Gronk makes a real impact?
Andre: Buccaneers. For the first time this season, Chicago was held under 100 rushing yards in its loss to Indianapolis in Week 4. The Bears only had 28 total rushing yards. As a result, Nick Foles threw the ball 42 times, and that’s never a good thing. Guess whose rush defense is better than Indy’s? Tampa. The Bucs have allowed just 2.7 yards per carry.
SUNDAY, OCT. 11
(-7) Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Tough spot for the Cardinals, who are in the middle of a three-game “road trip.” The Jets should be able to generate some pressure, and that’s not great for Kyler Murray and his 22.6 passer rating versus the rush.
Ricky: Jets. Hold your nose and take the points. The Cardinals obviously are better than the Jets, just like the other 30 teams in the NFL. But Arizona’s week-to-week performance is too volatile right now to lay a touchdown on the road, no matter how awful the opponent.
Andre: Cardinals. Joe Flacco will soon find out the Jets’ receivers are nothing like the ones he had during his heyday in Baltimore.
Carolina Panthers at (-2) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. What the Panthers have been able to do without their best player is impressive, but the defense — ranked 28th in DVOA — still is an issue. Atlanta finally gets right, for a week at least.
Ricky: Falcons. If Atlanta can’t finally win (and cover) this week, then Dan Quinn might as well start making dinner plans with Bill O’Brien.
Andre: Panthers. Carolina hasn’t missed a beat without Christian McCaffrey. Mike Davis is third among all running backs in receptions, and the Falcons have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
Cincinnati Bengals at (-13) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Baltimore is 4-2-1 against the spread when favored by 10 points or more since the start of 2018, including a 36-point drubbing of the Bengals last year. The Ravens beat up on bad teams.
Ricky: Ravens. Joe Burrow has faced the most pressured dropbacks among NFL quarterbacks this season. Not great when going up against a Ravens defense that loves sending extra bodies to disrupt the QB.
Andre: Ravens. We all know how great Baltimore’s rush offense is and Cincinnati ranks 27th in rush defense. The Ravens also rank second in blitz rate, meaning the Bengals’ offensive line, which has allowed the second-most sacks in football, will have a long day.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-6) Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. It’s possible the Texans — who apparently were on the verge of mutiny — play better now that Bill O’Brien is gone. There’s also this: Houston hasn’t allowed fewer than 162 rushing yards in a game this season, which is one of a few strengths for Jacksonville.
Ricky: Jaguars. As CBS Sports notes, teams are 14-21 ATS in games immediately following a midseason coach firing. Take that for what it’s worth, obviously, as every situation is different. But it’s a reminder that culture changes usually don’t happen overnight.
Andre: Texans. Despite their 0-4 record, the Texans have a better yards per play differential than the Jaguars. Houston had to play Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Texans finally get a break against Jacksonville. You have to think they’ll show some more life after firing O’Brien, too.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Currently no line given uncertainty about game
(-7) Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Rams. LA has one of the best run games in the league, which should get a lot of play here, and they don’t slow down when they’re leading. The Rams rank ninth in pace when leading by seven or more.
Ricky: Rams. It’s kinda funny that Ron Rivera is turning to Kyle Allen, a quarterback whom one could argue played an indirect role in the coach’s dismissal from Carolina.
Andre: Football Team. According to Pro Football Focus, Jared Goff has a 120.6 passer rating when kept clean, but a 64 passer rating when under pressure. If it’s one thing Washington does well, it’s putting pressure on the quarterback. They’re third in sack rate.
Las Vegas Raiders at (-13) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. While KC didn’t have to clear the hurdles New England did Monday night, it still was a weird situation. The Chiefs will get back on track here with a lot of plays in space that turn into huge gains against a Raiders team that is second in missed tackles and third in yards after catch allowed.
Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City usually wins, usually covers and usually beats the crap out of AFC West opponents. It’ll be a major deviation from the norm if the Chiefs don’t roll.
Andre: Chiefs. Las Vegas ranks 31st in pass coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Not good news when going up against Kansas City’s explosive offense.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-7) Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Pittsburgh leads the league in QB pressure, while Carson Wentz has a grotesque 28 passer rating under pressure. Philly also has struggled against slot receivers (33 receptions on 42 targets for 342 yards), and now the Eagles get arguably the NFL’s top slot guy in JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Ricky: Steelers. Philadelphia still has way too many injuries, crushing both its receiving corps and its offensive line. Sure, the Eagles overcame those ailments in Week 4, but they won’t have Nick Mullens to bail them out this time around. It’ll be a long day for the visitors, with Pittsburgh stomping out Wentz’s improvisation tactics.
Andre: Steelers. Wentz ranks 33rd in passer rating. This means there are backups better than him. Now, he goes up against a well-rested Steelers defense that leads the league in sacks and allows fewer than five yards per play.
Miami Dolphins at (-8.5) San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. The idea of Ryan Fitzpatrick torching a banged-up defense to keep Miami in the game makes sense, but … then you realize Miami is gonna struggle to slow San Fran no matter who’s under center.
Ricky: Dolphins. Maybe I’m just gun-shy about laying so many points in wake of San Francisco’s Week 4 hiccup against Philadelphia. But the 49ers’ uncertainty at quarterback is troubling against the feisty Fins.
Andre: 49ers. The 49ers lead the NFL in yards per play differential. The Dolphins are last.
Denver Broncos at (-11) New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. Picking against Bill Belichick when Brett Rypien is on the other side is typically a terrible idea, but this is anything but a typical situation with everything the Patriots are dealing with right now.
Ricky: Patriots. This just feels like one of those spots where — if the game is played — the Pats pull away late, win in a blowout and we all sit there thinking, “How the hell did they do that?”
Andre: Patriots. The Patriots are second in the league in takeaways. Expect a few more of those with Rypien under center for Denver. Rypien has thrown a pick on 10 percent of his throws this season. The Patriots, since 2016, are 18-1 SU and 13-6 ATS against quarterbacks with fewer than 20 games of experience. The one loss came against Lamar Jackson, who we can all agree is slightly better than Rypien.
(-1.5) Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Browns. The Colts might be without their best defensive player (Darius Leonard) and left tackle (Anthony Castonzo), which plays right into two of the Browns’ strengths: the run game and pass rush.
Ricky: Browns. Indianapolis’ defense looks legit. But consider the Colts’ competition so far: Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears — four teams with limitations, some of which reside on the offensive side. Much stiffer test this week against Kevin Stefanski’s offense in Cleveland.
Andre: Colts. Cleveland thrives when its running game is going, but Indy allows just 3.6 yards per carry. If the Browns can’t get the run going and are too reliant on Baker Mayfield, that won’t be a good thing. They’re just 1-7 when Mayfield throws the ball 40 times or more in a game in his career.
New York Giants at (-9.5) Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. If Dallas lets the Giants’ offense run wild, the problems are bigger than we thought.
Ricky: Cowboys. Very few people know the Cowboys like Jason Garrett. That said, the Giants’ offense — led by Garrett, now New York’s offensive coordinator — has been brutal.
Andre: Cowboys. Dallas has the worst turnover differential in football. Because of this, the Cowboys rank 32nd in drive start and 31st in opponent drive start. They don’t force turnovers to get good field position and they cough up the ball often and give their opponents great field position, especially early in games. Dallas bounces back this week. Its previous three opponents (Cleveland, Seattle and Atlanta) rank first, fourth and eighth, respectively, in turnover differential. The Giants rank 25th.
Minnesota Vikings at (-7) Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Seattle’s pass defense has struggled in a big way this season, and it will be without Jamal Adams again this week. The Vikings should score enough to keep it close.
Ricky: Seahawks. Seattle has arguably the best deep passing attack in the NFL, and Minnesota’s most glaring weakness is its cornerback play. Russell Wilson’s been cooking all season, and he’s not leaving the kitchen this week at home on a Sunday night.
Andre: Seahawks. Seattle allows 3.4 yards per carry. They’ll limit Dalvin Cook and take advantage of a horrendous secondary that allows the second-most yards per pass attempt.
MONDAY, OCT. 12
Los Angeles Chargers at (-7.5) New Orleans Saints, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. The Saints haven’t been the same team without Michael Thomas, and it’s unclear whether he returns this week. Even if he does, they’ve been ravaged by injuries on both sides, while LA has been feisty.
Ricky: Chargers. The Saints struggle to cover big spreads, going 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when favored by 7.5 points or more. They’re also often overvalued at home, perhaps now even more so without the New Orleans crowd being a factor.
Andre: Chargers. The Chargers do a pretty good job of containing pass-catching running backs. Despite going up against Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Mike Davis earlier this season, they’ve allowed just 154 yards and 29 receptions on 40 targets to RBs. To put that into perspective, Atlanta has allowed 257 yards and 34 receptions on 40 targets. All three of the Chargers’ losses were one-possession games. They’ll keep this close.
