NFL Divisional Round Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Rides With Chiefs, Packers
Plus: We're expecting plenty of points in Ravens-Bills
We were able to accomplish the improbable during the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Buffalo Bills defeated the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 on Saturday afternoon, meaning our OVER 51 bet pushed and slashed our parlay odds.
It wasn't done there, though.
The Buccaneers beat the Washington Football Team 31-23 on Saturday night, doing the exact same to all of us who had Tampa Bay -8.
So, in what was essentially a one-game weekend, we lost our money line bet as the No. 3 Seattle Seahawks were upset by the No. 6 Los Angeles Rams.
Nothing like an 0-1-2 weekend to get the postseason started, right?
Anyway, here is our best-bet parlay ahead of this weekend's four NFL divisional round games.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 50 points
The Ravens came out on the winning side of an AFC wild card matchup with the Tennessee Titans, but it was surprising how few points were scored in Baltimore's 20-13 victory. It was a game between two of the NFL's best rushing offenses, but the defenses stood out.
We're not so sure it will be the same this week, though, even with the forecast in Buffalo calling for snow. Simply, these are two very good offenses. The Ravens averaged 29 points per game during the regular season while beating the total in seven of 16 games. Most recently, against the Titans, the Ravens were hindered by their red-zone efficiency (1-for-3) but still put up 400-plus yards of offense (236 rushing yards). The opportunities should be there this week against a Buffalo run defense that finished 17th in the league.
The Bills were second in the league in points scored (31 per game) during the regular season. And quarterback Josh Allen shouldn't be overly impacted by the forecast, even if snow falls. Buffalo finished 11-4-1 against the total with a 5-3 clip at home. While the Bills will go up against a very good Baltimore defense, the 50-point total seems more than reachable.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
No team scored more points this season than the Packers, while no team allowed fewer than the Rams. Los Angeles, however, will be playing with an injury-impacted All-Pro Aaron Donald, who tore his rib cartilage in the Rams' NFC wild card win. Rams head coach Sean McVay said Tuesday that Donald will play, but to what extent is unknown. Donald did not return to last weekend's game in Seattle after suffering the injury.
On the opposite sideline, All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his career and had the privilege of getting some rest during Green Bay's bye week. Rodgers put together an impressive 48-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the regular season while passing for 4,300 yards. He threw 18 of those touchdowns to fellow All-Pro Davante Adams.
The Packers put together a 10-6 record against the spread during the regular season with a 5-3 clip at Lambeau Field. Los Angeles covered in its most recent playoff win (Seattle was a three-point favorite), but the Rams were just .500 ATS on the road this season.
It just feels like an injury-depleted Rams squad won't be able to keep up with the high-powered Green Bay offense.
Kansas City Chiefs to win OUTRIGHT (-500) Cleveland Browns
Taking a real shot in the dark here, we know. We have the utmost confidence in the top-seeded Chiefs handling the Browns, but with how much ease is where the question arises. The Chiefs currently are 10-point home favorites, per consensus data, which feels a bit high, even for arguably the NFL's best team that also benefitted from a bye week.
If that line was closer to seven or even eight points, we'd roll with it. But nothing would be worse than losing out on the whole pie because Kansas City missed an extra point in the fourth quarter, or because the Browns scored in the final minute to make it an eight-point game. The money line bet almost feels like free money at this point, and while it might be minimal, we're willing to take it.
Payout: $100 to win $435
Record: 0-1-2
