Fantasy Football 2021: Five Receivers Who Could Be Overvalued
Don't drop the ball when drafting wideouts
Projecting the fantasy performance of wide receivers isn't easy. There are so many factors out of their control that it's difficult to project which wideouts will shine from year to year or even week to week.
That makes drafting fantasy receivers tricky.
The top of the board largely is chalk at the wideout position, but the middle and late rounds are where you must make the right decisions at a pivotal position like receiver.
Here are five wideouts who might be overvalued and you should think twice about drafting.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: It might be tempting to draft Thomas, who surely will fall in drafts as he works his way back from ankle surgery. Maybe you think he's worth a gamble in the fifth or sixth round. If he comes back healthy and motivated, it's the steal of your draft. We're skeptical that happens, though. The man makes his living on moving fast and cutting quick. If the ankle issues linger even in the slightest, that could seriously affect Thomas' ability to reach his lofty ceiling. Just as important: Thomas no longer is catching balls from Drew Brees. Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will be under center for Sean Payton to start the season. Winston certainly will be able to move the ball down the field better than Brees, but he lacks the short and intermediate touch Brees used to build a Hall of Fame career. That just so happens to be where Thomas specializes, too. There are just too many unknowns to feel good about Thomas, especially at such a premium position.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos: It was a tough rookie campaign for Jeudy, and many will be tempted to buy low and hope he makes a big Year 2 jump. Dig deeper into the numbers, though, and there are some major red flags about his first year. Jeudy did rank 37th among receivers in fantasy targets per game, which is a fine total, but 71 qualified receivers were targeted more in the red zone. Of those same qualified receivers, only two (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman) had higher drop percentages than Jeudy. He also wasn't especially impressive after the catch. That's a lot of issues for a receiver who will be catching passes from Drew Lock this season.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: No doubt, Johnson received a whole bunch of targets in 2020, finishing sixth in the NFL with 144. Will he be near the top of that list again in 2021, though? JuJu Smith-Schuster is staying put, and the assumption is he'll be healthy this season after an injury-plagued campaign. Chase Claypool was a touchdown machine as a rookie before he saw his workload dialed back as the season progressed. Surely he'll get more looks this year. The most important personnel point is Pittsburgh seems committed to regaining a run game; it drafted running back Najee Harris in the first round. The Steelers didn't do that to start throwing it even more, especially with 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger slinging it back there. And despite Johnson's high target count, he still finished 84th among qualified wideouts in receiving yards per target while also registering a pedestrian 4.8 yards after the catch. Oh, and that 13 percent drop rate was the fourth-highest.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys: The veteran wideout still has the skills to be very good, and he'll likely put up big numbers. We'd just caution you against buying too much into the hype surrounding Dak Prescott's return and draft Cooper to be a WR1. The issue with Cooper is the presence of CeeDee Lamb, who looks like a superstar ready to break out. That Dallas offense has multiple mouths to feed not only with Cooper and Lamb but also Michael Gallup on the outside and Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. Be wary of overdrafting Cooper, that's all.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars: He might have been the reason for plenty of fantasy championships in 2020, but there are some reasons for skepticism this season. The biggest is just general uncertainty regarding the new coaching staff, quarterback, personnel and how it all affects Shenault's role. Jacksonville brought in Marvin Jones to lead that receiving corps, and rookie QB Trevor Lawrence has all sorts of chemistry with rookie pass-catching running back Travis Etienne. Just keep all that in mind before drafting Shenault based solely on what he did a year ago.
