NFL Odds: Why You Should Wait If Looking To Bet Patriots Vs. Tom Brady

Tampa Bay likely will be -7 by Sunday


Sep 28, 2021

Patience is one of the hardest virtues when it comes to betting the NFL.

Knowing when to bet is also crucial as you navigate the numerical wagering waters. Sunday night’s showdown between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a perfect situation where you have to understand when to place your wager.

Oddsmakers opened the game Tampa Bay -5.5 on the lookahead number last week and the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas hung Buccaneers -6 on Sunday night when the Week 4 NFL market re-opened. The spread has already been bet up to Bucs -6.5 at most places and some sevens are starting to pop.

You better believe the public action will drive Tom Brady and the Bucs to -7 by Sunday.

“When it’s a Sunday night game, the line has to be higher,” SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons told NESN’s Chicken Dinner podcast in late August.

“That’s always a game that’s going to take on a ton of liability with parlays during the week,” Salmons further explained. “Games like that you always want to inflate that line because you know what you’re going to get all week. Plus, the bettors will fire parlays all day long on Sunday and throw Tampa Bay in there. All the parlays that win will go to that decision and there’s so much exposure.

“It will probably be the highest-bet NFL game of the year to that point because of the matchup.”

Multiple bookmakers that I spoke to said it’s not if, but when the spread gets to Tampa Bay -7 across the betting screen. One outfit said even 7.5 is possible due to how one-sided the betting could be.

After all, if Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints rolled into Foxboro and won by 15 points, imagine what a vengeance-filled Tom Brady and that offense could do on the scoreboard. (That’s how the general public will perceive the game).

I personally like “Under” 49 total points — the Patriots are 3-0 to the “Under” this year — because I can’t imagine Bill Belichick wants any part of a shootout with Brady and his bunch. And I’m not so sure the New England offense is explosive or efficient enough to score more than 20 points.

If anybody knows Brady’s weaknesses, it’s Belichick. That’s the elephant in the room. Tampa Bay’s offense will be extremely difficult to stop, but perhaps Belichick has some tricks up his sleeve to slow the Bucs’ attack. Belichick is also 12-6 ATS as home underdog, including outright upsets against Arizona and Baltimore last season.

If you like the Patriots, you should wait to fire. There’s absolutely no reason to bet New England +6.5 and not be protected by a seven-point loss. Don’t settle — take +7 when it’s available.

Thumbnail photo via Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports Images

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