Chiefs Vs. Raiders Odds: Analysis, Picks For ‘Sunday Night Football’

The latest NFL Sunday slate concludes with an AFC West showdown at Allegiant Stadium, where the Los Angeles Raiders will host the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here is a betting preview for the NFL Week 10 primetime tilt, courtesy of SportsGrid.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Moneyline: Chiefs -146, Raiders +124
Spread: Chiefs -3 (-105), Raiders +3 (-115)
Total (52): Over -110, Under -110

Picks
– Darren Waller OVER 67.5 receiving yards
– Darren Waller OVER 5.5 receptions
– Patrick Mahomes OVER 287.5 passing yards
– Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 rushing yards
– Darrel Williams OVER 55.5 rushing yards
– Raiders +3

All NFL betting lines, odds, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Analysis
The Raiders host the Chiefs for a classic AFC West matchup on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 10. The division standings are effectively a four-way tie for first, as the Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers sit 5-3 while the Chiefs and Denver Broncos are dead-locked at 5-4 with their bye weeks upcoming. That makes Sunday’s matchup a potential inflection point for these teams as they navigate towards a playoff berth.

The Chiefs have won three of their past four, using defense as a catalyst for more wins. The two-time defending AFC champions held their opponents to 17 or fewer points over their past three wins. However, the three opponents they limited rank 16th, 21st and 22nd in total offense, with two of those games coming at home. Despite those good showings, the Chiefs still give up the seventh-most yards per game and the eighth-most points.

KC will be a much stiffer challenge from the sixth-ranked Raiders offense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable to the pass and have the 28th opponent rank at FanDuel against tight ends. Waller leads the Raiders in targets and averages 11.7 yards per target. Through eight games, the Pro Bowl tight end is averaging 67.1 yards per contest and is coming off a week in which he caught seven of 11 targets for 92 yards. The Chiefs don’t have anyone who can slow down Waller, and we’re expecting a big performance from him. We’re taking the over on Waller’s 67.5 receiving yards prop and over 5.5 receptions.

There’s no other way to put it: Mahomes is having a down season. Despite leading the league in pass attempts, the 26-year-old is averaging his fewest yards per game, dragging his yards per pass attempt and completion percentage down. The Raiders’ pass defense has been excellent this season, giving up an average of 207.1 passing yards per game and limiting opponents to 217 or fewer passing yards in all four home games. That will be integral to keeping Mahomes under 287.5 passing yards.

However, you can run all over the Raiders. Las Vegas gives up the fifth-most rushing yards per game, allowing 109 or more in seven of eight games this season. We’ve seen Mahomes take off in a few contests this season, going for 26 or more yards in five of nine games. The backfield is Williams’ to lose. In three of the past four weeks, Williams led the team in carries and remains the primary back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still on injured reserve. Mahomes and Williams should make it over their respective rushing yards props of 23.5 and 55.5.

The Raiders have been good at home this season, going 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread. This will be their first divisional home game of the season after splitting a pair of games on the road. The Chiefs’ pass game has struggled this season, and we expect that to continue Sunday night against the Raiders’ impressive pass D. Las Vegas will keep this close all night, if not win outright, we’re taking the points on the underdog home side.