NHL Odds: Favored Maple Leafs Try To Bounce Back Against Flyers

Don't overlook the terrible Coyotes on Wednesday

by

November 10, 2021

There’s something funny going on in the NHL these days.

We had a two-day reprieve from overtime wagers and then got hit with another five on Tuesday’s 10-game slate. Underdogs were even more trendy, with eight of 10 dogs cashing Tuesday night, too. All things considered, it was a profitable Tuesday night in the NHL. It’s a much quieter schedule Wednesday as we only have three games to choose from.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Moneyline: Maple Leafs -140, Flyers +116
Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+184), Flyers +1.5 (-230)
Total (6): Over -115, Under -105

The Flyers are skating around without a defensive care in the world. They’ll have to find a way to limit a Leafs attack that is starting to find its rhythm.

Philadelphia has been let down by shoddy defensive zone coverage over its past few games. Opponents have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances and 26 or more shots in three of their past four games, for an average of 11.8 quality chances and 26.8 shots per game. Those five-on-five metrics don’t sound half bad when we consider their defensive metrics across all strengths. Philadelphia is giving up an astounding 15.3 high-danger chances, 33.3 shots and 30.1 scoring opportunities per game over its past four games.

Somehow, the Flyers have managed to stay under the total in all four games despite their terrible defensive play, but we’re expecting a different outcome Wednesday night. That’s because the Leafs are bringing a blazing offensive unit into the matchup. Toronto has attempted no fewer than 11 high-danger and 36 scoring chances in any of its past five games, for respective averages of 15.8 and 40.5.

Toronto’s shooting percentage remains well below expected, considering its offensive efficiency, as it’s scoring on just 7.3% of its shots, good for 28th in the league. That should progress over the coming games, bringing their PDO up towards average.

The Leafs are due for progression while the Flyers are due for regression, and it should all come crashing together in a high-scoring game in Philadelphia. The Leafs should get the better of the Flyers in a game where the goals are plentiful.

The Pick: Maple Leafs -140, Over 6 -115

Minnesota Wild vs. Arizona Coyotes
Moneyline: Wild -215, Coyotes +176
Spread: Wild -1.5 (+128), Coyotes +1.5 (-158)
Total (5.5): Over -110, Under -110

The Wild kick off a three-game, four-night road trip, starting Wednesday in Arizona against the Coyotes. That could spell trouble for a Wild team that is struggling through its road schedule.

Across all strengths, the Wild have been outplayed in three of their past five games. Typically, Minnesota relies on strong defensive zone coverage to limit its opponents, but that has been absent from its road efforts. Minnesota has given up 10 or more high-danger chances in three of its past five, for an average of 11.2 per game. Worse, the Wild have been out-chanced in four of those games and are averaging just 9.2 quality chances over their recent sample.

Scoring chances and shots are also flowing abundantly in their opponents’ favor, as the Wild have given up 30 or more scoring chances and shots in four of five, with Minnesota getting outworked in three of five. That could hurt the Wild on the first leg of their back-to-back, with Kaapo Kahkonen and his 86.0% save percentage in net.

There is no sugarcoating how bad the Coyotes will be this season, and that’s reflected in their early outcomes. Arizona is 1-10-1 through its first 12 games; however, the Coyotes have posted expected goals-for percentages above 50.0% in five of those games. When we filter down to home games, the Coyotes have outplayed their opponents in two of four games.

We have to be choosy when backing the Coyotes this season. But as +176 underdogs on home ice, with their opponent starting their backup tendy on the first night of a back-to-back, is one of those spots. Don’t be surprised if this one gets sorted out in overtime.

The Picks: Coyotes +176, 60-Minute Tie +340

Thumbnail photo via Nick Turchiaro/USA TODAY Sports Images

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