Nov 13, 2021

As we hit the halfway point of the NFL season, let’s jump in and look at the updated lines for Most Valuable Player. Patrick Mahomes was the favorite entering the season but has fallen to a huge +5000 longshot as the Chiefs offense continues to be up and down. After the season’s quarter pole, Kyler Murray had jumped ahead of Mahomes, but he’s dropped while dealing with an ankle injury. It’s still a hotly contested race so let’s try and sort on this MVP madness.


  • Josh Allen +300
  • Tom Brady +340
  • Kyler Murray +600
  • Matthew Stafford +700
  • Dak Prescott +900
  • Aaron Rodgers +1000
  • Lamar Jackson +1100
  • Justin Herbert +1400
  • Ryan Tannehill +4000
  • Patrick Mahomes +5000

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Josh Allen (+300)

After opening the season at 13-1 odds, Josh Allen has asserted himself to bring home the MVP honors at the top of the board. Last week, a tough loss at Jacksonville did not deter anyone from getting off the Allen bandwagon as he climbed to the top spot. The Bills pivot is in the top-10 in TD passes and passing yards per game and is still dangerous on the ground. Allen’s first look down the list has a player right behind him who knows a thing or two about being valuable.

Tom Brady (+340)

Tom Brady has three MVPs in his trophy case and is the man I wouldn’t be surprised comes home with a fourth at season’s end. The GOAT shows no signs of slowing down as he continues to evade father time while leading the defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers to another run at the title. Brady ranks first in the league with 25 touchdowns thrown and is second only behind Matthew Stafford in yards thrown this season.

Kyler Murray (+600)

Kyler Murray has fallen out of the favorite spot to bring home the award as he navigates through an ankle injury. Murray and the Cardinals still own the NFL’s best record, but he missed last week, and if he misses Week 10 against Carolina, his stock should continue to drop.  As long as the Cardinals are winning and Murray is on the field, he will be in the conversation until the end of the year, and more value could be on its way.

Matthew Stafford (+700)

New to this list, but someone who should stick around is quarterback Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams. Stafford ranks first in yards thrown and second in touchdown passes only behind Brady. Stafford also has the second-highest QB rating outside of Russell Wilson of quarterbacks that have thrown enough passes to qualify. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. very well could help the former Lion’s cause.

Dak Prescott (+900)

The odds on Dak Prescott have dropped a little bit, but for a guy not on this list at the beginning of the season, he’s holding tight and trending in the right direction. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game of the season, after a bye week and dud performance. If Dak wants to keep climbing,  he needs to show the first half of the season was not an outlier. A test against a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta pass defense is Prescott’s first shot at putting Week 9 behind him. The Cowboys are -370 on the FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline, so redemption should be at hand.

Lamar Jackson (+1100)

It’s been a strange season for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. There are tight games, record-setting game-winning field goals, a 6-3 impressive record, a spot on top of the AFC North, and yet a stinker of a loss in Miami on Thursday night. Despite the setback, the leader of all of it, Jackson, has stood out. He’s seventh in the league in rushing and tenth in passing yards per game. Let that sit for a minute. Only six running backs are ahead of the 2019 MVP in yards on the ground. If Lamar can lead his team to the North title and finish in the top 10 in rushing and passing, that could put him at the top of the list come season’s end.

Thumbnail photo via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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