Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model


Dec 29, 2021

Tonight’s nine-game slate features a bevy of teams favored by six or more points. Among those is the Eastern Conference’s second-seed, Chicago Bulls, who are -8.5 chalk hosting the 11th-ranked Atlanta Hawks. The Bulls have won four straight games, but based on our algorithm, the advantage lies in backing the Hawks for Wednesday night’s affair.

The Bulls have been on a serious run over their recent stretch, but COVID-19 and injuries have impacted their lineup. Starting point guard Lonzo Ball remains out due to health and safety protocols, while Alex Caruso deals with a foot injury that will keep him out versus the Hawks. That leaves their backcourt thin, meaning Zach LaVine and Coby White will have to shoulder increased workloads.

Holding Trae Young at bay is a big ask on a regular night, let alone when you are asking your backup point guard to play added minutes. Young has been playing out of his mind since the end of November, averaging 30.7 points per game over his previous 13 outings. That increased productivity hasn’t come at the expense of team scoring, as Young is above his season average in assists over that span, dishing 9.4 dimes per game. Altogether, the Oklahoma product is lifting the Hawks offense to new heights.

This is the second of two straight meetings between the Bulls and Hawks. Chicago defeated the Hawks on Monday night 130-118, but our projections indicate that tonight’s matchup will be much closer. The Bulls nailed 54.3% of field goal attempts in Monday’s contest, well above their season average of 47.1%. That’s three straight contests for the Bulls with a field goal percentage above 53.0%, suggesting they are due for regression as their shooting percentage works back down toward average.

The fair betting price for these teams is closer than the betting market implies, as Atlanta has a 41.01% chance of winning tonight. Atlanta also sports a fair moneyline of +139 and an expected spread of +2.4. It’s on that basis that we rate the Hawks moneyline wager at +295 and +8.5 on the spread as 5-star wagers. The under is also rated as a 3-star play with a projected total of 221.

All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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Thumbnail photo via Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

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