Dec. 18 College Football Betting Preview: Inaugural LA Bowl Caps Big Day
Motivation is a major factor Saturday
Here's a quick betting preview for the college football bowl game action Saturday, Dec. 18. Be sure to sign up for and play the College Football Challenge at NESN Games.
Boca Raton Bowl (11 a.m. ET): Western Kentucky vs. (-3) Appalachian State, 66.5
One storyline to watch: What is Western Kentucky's headspace like?
It certainly would be understandable if football has taken a back seat for the Hilltoppers in the lead-up to their bowl game. The entire state of Kentucky has been left to pick up the pieces, literally and figuratively, after horrific tornadoes ripped through the state last week. In an awesome move, the Appalachian State athletic department is helping to raise funds ahead of Saturday morning's clash. It would not be surprising and completely understandable if Western Kentucky comes out flat, but it also wouldn't be shocking to see them play inspired ball to bring back a trophy.
One trend to know: Favorites are 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in the last 5 Boca Raton Bowl games
Pick: Appalachian State -3
App State just wins bowl games having won all six of its postseason contests. The most intriguing matchup in this entire game is the WKU passing offense versus the Mountaineers' passing defense. There's potential for wind and rain Saturday, which could negatively affect Western Kentucky more than App State.
New Mexico Bowl (2:15 p.m.): UTEP vs. (-11.5) Fresno State, 52
One storyline to watch: Major changes for Fresno State
The Bulldogs had a fine season, going 9-3 highlighted by a win over UCLA and taking Oregon down to the wire. However, that success ultimately was enough for Washington to lure Bulldogs head coach Kalen DeBoer away from Fresno. Not only that, Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener's status is unknown after he entered the transfer portal only to back out and return to the Bulldogs.
One trend to know: Teams with an interim head coach are 31-33 straight-up and 31-32-1 ATS in bowl games dating back to 2003-04 (via VSiN)
Pick: UTEP +11.5
Too much uncertainty to lay that many points with Fresno State, and UTEP also is in search of its first bowl win in more than 50 years. That should be enough motivation for the Miners ... right?
Independence Bowl (3:30 p.m.) UAB vs. (-6.5) No. 13 BYU, 54.5
One storyline to watch: Just how motivated is BYU?
It's a little startling to see a top-15 team like the Cougars relegated to the Independence Bowl. BYU went 5-0 against the Pac 12 this season, including a win over Rose Bowl-bound Utah, but it wasn't enough to earn a New Year's Six bid. Some within the program expressed disappointment in not earning a better bid, so how that gets channeled will be key Saturday.
One trend to know: UAB is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. independent programs (via Odds Shark)
Pick: BYU -6.5
UAB should be motivated to play well as it continues a program renaissance, but this is a tough ask assuming the Cougars don't completely no-show. BYU is the definition of battle-tested, having played three teams currently ranked in the top 11: Utah, Baylor and Alabama.
LendingTree Bowl (5:45 p.m.): Eastern Michigan vs. (-8.5) Liberty, 58.5
One storyline to watch: Can Malik Willis improve his draft stock?
The main attraction here is Liberty QB Malik Willis, who was a projected first-round pick in the most recent mock draft from ESPN's Todd McShay.
One trend to know: Underdogs are 9-3 ATS in this bowl (via VSiN)
Pick: Eastern Michigan +8.5
There was top 25 buzz for Liberty entering the season after the Flames finished 2020 at No. 17 in the AP poll and with Willis controlling the offense. Liberty started the season 5-1 but struggled down the stretch, starting with a loss at Ole Miss that probably was the equivalent of their bowl game given Hugh Freeze's past in Oxford. The Flames limped to the finish line, losing their last three, and they are terribly careless with the football. Motivation is a major issue here for Liberty, so let's take the points with Eastern Michigan which is looking for its first bowl win in more than 30 years.
LA Bowl (7:30 p.m.): Utah State vs. (-7) Oregon State, 67.5
One storyline to watch: Deven Thompkins, game-changer?
In addition to the obvious storyline of two so-so programs playing in arguably the NFL's nicest stadium, we'll have our eye on Thompkins, whom The Athletic tabbed as Utah State's top draft prospect. The small but speedy wideout figures to play a prominent role in the Aggies' high-powered offense.
One trend to know: Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (via Odds Shark)
Pick: Utah State +7
The Aggies have an explosive offense, scoring 46 or more points in five of their games. They should be all kinds of fired up for the chance to knock off a Pac-12 team in a brand-new NFL stadium in primetime, as this game gets the Saturday night spot at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The total is sky-high, and Utah State should feel comfortable in a shootout, enough to keep it within the number at least.
