NFL Week 13 Picks: Patriots-Bills Monday Night Clash Highlights Otherwise ‘Meh’ Schedule

It’s December in the NFL, which means the stretch run to the playoffs is here. And it’s a very crowded race.

As Week 13 begins, we can safely say the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans aren’t going to make the postseason. It’s looking more and more unlikely for the Seattle Seahawks, too, and both the New York Jets and Chicago Bears need miracle runs to get in.

After that, though, pretty much every other team can argue for its playoff contention, meaning 26 teams remain in the hunt. So, while there might not be any “good” teams, we’re starting to see the effect of that in one of the more wide-open playoff races in recent NFL history.

That makes trying to pick games, especially against the spread, quite difficult. However, that’s the name of the game for NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle, who pick their ATS winners for every game each week of the season.

Here’s how they fared last week:

Now, here are their Week 13 picks, with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

THURSDAY, DEC. 2

(-4.5) Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Saints. Feels like too many points for a Cowboys team down a chunk of its coaching staff, including the head coach. New Orleans, meanwhile, is getting healthier and should have its best run-game attack of the season with Taysom Hill under center.
Ricky: Cowboys. Maybe a quarterback change will give the Saints’ offense the shot in the arm it so desperately needs. But not having its two Pro Bowl tackles (Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk) or its All-Pro running back (Alvin Kamara) certainly complicates matters for New Orleans. The Cowboys’ offense, meanwhile, is welcoming back stud wideout CeeDee Lamb.

SUNDAY, DEC. 5

(-11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Tampa Bay has been able to right the ship to an extent, winning two in a row, but neither win was impressive. This Falcons team hung with them in September, trailing by a field goal after three quarters before melting down in the fourth. If Atlanta can avoid a similar collapse, this should be a competitive divisional game.
Ricky: Falcons. The Bucs, playing in the second of back-to-back road games after a rollercoaster win last week, have the Bills and a Sunday night showdown with the Saints looming in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. This feels like a letdown spot if Tampa Bay takes Atlanta lightly.

(-8.5) Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Indy three times this year has been a favorite of seven or more points, and it has won all three, covering in two while outscoring opponents by 50 in those three games. It’s a front-running team of bullies in the best way, and they should take care of business in Houston.
Ricky: Colts. Nice, soft landing spot for the Colts after last week’s crushing loss to the Bucs. Houston’s defense ranks 26th in rush EPA while allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game, the second-worst mark in the NFL. And we all know Indianapolis’ offense is built on its ground attack.

The Spread Podcast | Patriots-Bills Preview; Week 13 Locks | Ep. 36

Nov 30, 2021

(-7.5) Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. I probably should find data to back up whether this is a legitimate viewpoint, but this looks like a classic, “Get in, win, get out and don’t get anyone hurt” game for Arizona, which is just coasting along atop the NFC — especially with an important Week 14 showdown with the Rams looming.
Ricky: Bears. Either Kyler Murray (ankle) will be shaking off some rust (or hobbled?) upon playing in his first game since Oct. 28, or the Cardinals again will turn to Colt McCoy. That much unpredictably at the quarterback position makes me uneasy about laying more than a touchdown on the road.

(-7) Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. As long as Minnesota doesn’t get caught playing with its food, the Vikings should roll here. Alexander Mattison has proved to be a suitable Dalvin Cook understudy, and even if Minnesota can’t get the run game going, Kirk Cousins has too many weapons for Detroit’s sad secondary to slow down.
Ricky: Lions. Don’t the Vikings always get caught playing with their food? Only two Minnesota games this season — a 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3 and a 34-26 loss to San Francisco in Week 12 — have been decided by more than seven points. The Vikings play to their level of competition, for better or worse, so don’t rule out something fluky happening in the Motor City.

New York Giants at (-4.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Liked it a lot more at -3 before the Daniel Jones news, but I’m sticking with Miami because of New York’s woeful pass rush. Tua Tagovailoa is finally showing signs of the first-round talent the Dolphins expected him to be, and with time to operate, he should have his way.
Ricky: Giants. Really don’t like this spread jumping up over a field goal, largely because it could be a defensive struggle in which points are at a premium. Miami’s defense has been much more opportunistic of late, but New York’s offense, if nothing else, generally takes care of the football well enough.

NFL Survivor League: Three Teams To Pick (And Avoid) Entering Week 13

Dec 1, 2021

Los Angeles Chargers at (-3.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. Just a tough spot for LA, which has to go to Cincinnati for an early-afternoon game, and it’s not a great matchup. Joe Mixon had a career game last week and now gets a shot at the Chargers’ porous run defense. Even if the Chargers find a way to take away the run, Joe Burrow has plenty of weapons to turn to and build a lead LA won’t be able to erase.
Ricky: Bengals. Tempted to take the points, based solely on Justin Herbert’s ceiling in any given game. But Los Angeles’ run defense (dead-last in rush DVOA and rush success rate) is extremely leaky, opening the door for Mixon to have another strong performance, and Cincinnati’s D is better than advertised.

(-6.5) Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. This is admittedly unscientific, but this is a weird spot for Philly. Jalen Hurts has an ankle injury, which could slow him down even if he plays. Additionally, the Eagles have the bye week coming up and might get caught looking ahead to the stretch run. Just feels like a spot to take the points.
Ricky: Jets. The Eagles losing two weeks in a row at MetLife Stadium? Probably not going to happen. But Hurts’ ankle sprain is concerning given how reliant he (and the entire Eagles offense) is on his legs.

Washington Football Team at (-2.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. Everything in the world points to taking the Raiders here, who are coming off a big, dramatic win on Thanksgiving and have a super rest advantage after WFT played Monday night. Yet, the line is only 2.5? Seems fishy. I’ll take the bait on Washington.
Ricky: Football Team. Washington’s defense is trending in the right direction. The same can’t be said for the Raiders, who should be thankful the Cowboys couldn’t take advantage of their opportunities to seize control on Turkey Day. The rest discrepancy is weird, sure. But Washington should move the ball effectively, particularly on the ground or via its short passing attack.

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-12.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. If the Colts are the good kind of bullies, maybe the Rams are the bad kind. That means they should be able to beat up on bad teams like the Jaguars, and while there are concerns about Matthew Stafford’s health, the LA defense should have its way with the Jacksonville offense.
Ricky: Rams. Just going to trust this is the week the Rams finally get their act together against a terrible opponent. If not now, when?

Patriots-Bucs Super Bowl LVI Matchup Would Shatter Betting Records

Nov 30, 2021

(-3.5) San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. The Seahawks are just about dead, and the “Russell Wilson wants out” talk is only going to intensify. It’s getting ugly. Maybe that’s the wrong read, but this doesn’t feel like the week they turn it around against a 49ers team that has won its last three games by an average of more than two touchdowns.
Ricky: Seahawks. Injuries to Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner — arguably the 49ers’ most important pieces on offense and defense, respectively — will lead to a few hiccups that keep the Seahawks within the number, even if San Francisco ultimately wins its fourth straight.

(-4.5) Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. It’s hard to shake what we saw from Pittsburgh last week, but it’s not like Baltimore was much better despite its win. Maybe it’s clinging to the past, but I’m not ready to lay that many points with the road team in this rivalry.
Ricky: Steelers. Getting points with the home team, against a divisional opponent, in what’s basically a must-win game for Pittsburgh. Just can’t pass up the opportunity, especially with how Lamar Jackson (3 TDs, 5 INTs, 59.2 rating) has fared against the Steelers in the past.

Denver Broncos at (-10) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. This probably comes down to who can play their style, with one of the slowest-moving teams (Denver) trying to slow the Ferrari that is the Chiefs. I think the Broncos can do it behind a steady helping of Javonte Williams, who is a problem for a KC defense that still has its same issues.
Ricky: Chiefs. The Broncos’ Week 12 victory over the Chargers came at a price, as several players, including quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, were banged up. Denver also has been relying heavily on rookies, and few NFL experiences are more daunting than traveling to KC for a primetime matchup with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs coming off four straight wins plus a bye.

MONDAY, DEC. 6

New England Patriots at (-3) Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. Bill Belichick pointed to turnovers and field position as the two biggest keys in the Patriots’ six-game winning streak. Well, Josh Allen has thrown seven interceptions in his last four games, and only Ben Roethlisberger has more turnover-worthy passes this season (per Pro Football Focus). Allen will give it up, and New England will be waiting, especially if the Patriots can pound the ground game like Indy did two weeks ago in Orchard Park.
Ricky: Bills. This will be by far the toughest test New England’s offense has faced to date. Buffalo’s defense ranks first in DVOA, first in EPA per play, first in success rate, first in pressure rate, second in yards per drive, second in points per drive and second in turnovers per drive. Mac Jones has been solid, but this trip to Orchard Park for a Monday night showdown is a whole different beast.