NFL Sunday Wild Card Best Player Prop Bets: Eli Mitchell in an Ideal Spot
Player props are a terrific way to get into the NFL action, and Sunday’s Wild Card slate is full of prime spots to capitalize on individual player performance. With teams looking to advance to the next round, a couple of players may exceed expectations.
Look below and check out a few props to target this week.
All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
The Bet: Under 280.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Patrick Mahomes leads a high-powered Kansas Chiefs offense with aspirations of returning to the Super Bowl. Ranked as the 11th-best offense (per PFF), the Chiefs are one of the more dynamic teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio. The Wild Card matchup looks ideal for the Chiefs, facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranked 14th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Mahomes benefits from a dominant receiving corps in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who combine for 47% of the Chiefs’ target share.
However, the matchup with the Steelers looks to have blowout potential, with the Chiefs currently favored by 12.5-points on FanDuel Sportsbook, which may signal an uptick in the Chiefs run game, primarily through Darrel Williams, who should be used in a clock-killing situation and should serve as the lead back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with a shoulder injury.
This year, Mahomes has reached the 281-passing yard mark five times. Our models project him for 264.51 passing yards against the Steelers, trending him far below the mark in what looks to be a runaway matchup for the Chiefs.
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers
The Bet: Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Currently, the highest total on the slate at 51-points, the Wild Card matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys should have shootout potential. 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel has emerged as one of the more dominant playmakers in the league, responsible for a team-leading 25% target share, averaging 7.6 targets per game and 18.2 yards per reception. San Francisco has a tough matchup, facing a Cowboys defense ranked second in pass DVOA, which may limit Samuel’s big-play upside, in addition to San Francisco’s tendency to run a more balanced play-calling ratio, using a 52%/48% pass-to-run ratio.
This year, Samuel reached the 64-receiving yard mark eight times. He projects for 51.80 receiving yards against the Cowboys Sunday, trending him toward the under, facing one of the more stout pass defenses in the league.
Eli Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers
The Bet: Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
San Francisco 49ers running back Eli Mitchell has claimed the lead back role, responsible for 62% of the workload in the backfield, averaging 18.8 carries be games and 4.65 yards per attempt. Mitchell should play an integral part in the 49ers game script, despite the team currently being a 3-point road underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook. A weak spot in the Cowboys’ defense looks to be their ability to contain the running game, ranked 16th in rush DVOA, which sets up an ideal spot for Mitchell to move the 49ers’ offense on the ground. San Francisco is one of the slower-paced offenses in the league, calling a snap every 28.3 seconds (per RotoViz) and should try to keep the game’s pace more manageable to match the lightning-fast pace of the Cowboys.
This season, Mitchell has reached the 80-rush yard mark in eight games, and we’re projecting him for 84.03 rushing yards, trending him toward the over, in an ideal spot against a Cowboys’ defense that has had difficulty defending the rush this season.
All NFL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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