Sharp Bettors Love Georgia Over Alabama In CFP National Championship

Are you ready for Alabama vs. Georgia Part II?

It’s a rematch of this year’s SEC Championship where Alabama crushed Georgia 41-24 as a 6.5-point underdog behind 421 passing yards and three touchdowns from Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young.

As you can imagine, the point spread is a lot different this time around.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas was the first shop to hang a number on the College Football Playoff national championship. They opened Georgia -1 on New Year’s Eve as the Bulldogs were curb-stomping Michigan in the Orange Bowl.

Respected money quickly drove the line from Georgia -1 to -3.

“Sometimes the opening line is just wrong,” PointsBet trading director Jay Croucher told NESN. “I remember the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl a few years ago where the Rams opened as the favorite. Within 30 minutes, the Patriots were bet out to -2.5 and the market stayed there for two weeks.

“I am a little surprised by our betting splits, though,” Croucher admitted. “We waited and opened Georgia -3, and I honestly thought we would take money on Alabama no matter what because most people bet Nick Saban as an underdog. Our money is completely split down the middle.

“The fact that the line was immediately bet from -1 to -3 tells you that the sharps clearly like Georgia in the game.”

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It’s also clear that the betting market made the necessary corrections. I would argue that the market overadjusted from -6.5 to -1 — especially considering that Alabama wide receiver John Metchie is out with a torn ACL. All he did in the SEC title game was catch six passes for 97 yards and a score.

Results are results, though, and the books clearly valued Alabama’s victory.

“There’s quite a bit of stock from the SEC Championship baked into this number,” Croucher said. “The market recalibrated from Georgia -6.5 to Georgia -3. That’s significant movement off one game and the total is three points higher, too. And we still think Georgia is the better team.

“There’s maybe an argument that Alabama had to win to keep its season alive and make the playoff and Georgia could afford to play the long game. However, I suspect that Georgia would’ve preferred to just knock Alabama out and not have to face the Tide again.”

As far as future results go, most sportsbooks are going to be A-OK with Alabama or Georgia winning the national championship. Their odds were very, very short from jump street and those outcomes are exponentially better for the bottom line than a Cincinnati or Michigan title would’ve been.  

“We’re OK either way,” Croucher reported. “The main objective for our future book was to knock out Michigan, so we’re good there. Your big liabilities usually rack up on long shots because most people don’t want to tie up their money on Alabama and Georgia at shorter odds.”

You could almost hear Croucher smiling over the phone as he verbally celebrated Michigan’s elimination from the College Football Playoff. PointsBet was inundated with tons of Michigan future liability and the maize and blue money kept coming in before last weekend’s semifinal game.

“Ninety percent of our handle was on Michigan last week,” Croucher said. “Everybody loved the Wolverines. We were very happy with that decision.”