Bookmakers are already shading the Brooklyn Nets in Kyrie Irving’s first game back.
Brooklyn opened as a rather expensive 7.5-point road favorite against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night and the market has been bet up even higher to Brooklyn -9. It’s the most expensive number you’ve had to lay with the Nets away from home in almost two months.
Odds are good that we’ll see some Pacers resistance soon and bettors will swoop in to take +9.
“This will be a major sharp versus square side,” Sports Betting Dime editor-in-chief Matt McEwan told NESN. “The public is all over Brooklyn and they’re betting the Nets simply because Kyrie Irving is back. The sharps will look at Brooklyn’s 15-20 record against the spread and take a bloated number with the Pacers.
“I’ll be taking the points as Kyrie continues to get his legs back under him and find his rhythm.”
The biggest move on Wednesday’s game has come on the total. That market opened at O/U 218 and is now as high as 225 after peaking at 226.5 earlier in the day. That plays directly into what PointsBet director of trading Jay Croucher told NESN two months ago about all of Irving’s value coming on the offensive side of the ball.
Closing line in Brooklyn’s road games
+1.5 at Milwaukee (Oct. 19)
-1 at Philadelphia (Oct. 22)
-12 at Detroit (Nov. 5)
-3.5 at Toronto (Nov. 7)
-1 at Chicago (Nov. 8)
-10 at Orlando (Nov. 10)
-9 at New Orleans (Nov. 12)
-9 at Oklahoma City (Nov. 14)
-5.5 at Cleveland (Nov. 22)
+1.5 at Boston (Nov. 24)
-1.5 at Dallas (Dec. 7)
-3.5 at Houston (Dec. 8)
+2 at Atlanta (Dec. 10)
-7 at Detroit (Dec. 12)
+2.5 at L.A. Lakers (Dec. 25)
-3.5 at L.A. Clippers (Dec. 27)
Irving is not vaccinated against COVID-19, which has kept him sidelined until now. But the Nets are allowing him to rejoin the team as a part-time player. He’s still not eligible to play in home games because of New York City’s vaccination mandate.
That could make for a very interesting scenario where Irving would be ineligible in multiple games of any postseason series involving the Nets. If Brooklyn has home-court advantage in a best-of-seven, Irving would not be available for Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 given the current stipulations.
Wild, isn’t it?
“The sportsbooks are stuck,” McEwan explained. “They have to assume that eventually Kyrie will be allowed to play at home. That’s the safer position to be in right now. Leave the Nets as the favorites and go game-by-game and hope it plays out where he doesn’t have to miss potentially four of seven games in a playoff series.”
Brooklyn has been the odds-on NBA title favorite since the summer, when they opened around +225 at most American sportsbooks. Even without Irving for the last couple of months, the price never really ascended all that much. That’s because bookmakers would never want to be on the hook for big bets on great teams at odds that are too high.
After all, there’s always the potential that Irving is cleared to play in home games.
“I still don’t see a ton of value in Brooklyn’s title odds right now,” McEwan opined. “They are far too short. I’m going to hold out and see if I can get +300 or higher in the coming weeks.”
