Super Bowl Odds: Five Prop Bets You Should Consider Making Right Now
How long will Mickey Guyton hold 'brave' during the national anthem?
In the last 24 hours, I have pored through over 500 Super Bowl propositional bets for next Sunday's showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
American sportsbooks are getting more and more creative, too.
For the first time ever, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering odds on Joe Burrow (+1200) or Matthew Stafford (+1500) to catch a pass in the game. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles was the last quarterback to haul in a reception on the NFL's biggest stage back in Super Bowl LII.
Professional bettors -- better known as "wise guys" -- are shorting Rams running back Cam Akers big time. Akers' rushing yardage prop has been bet down from O/U 68.5 to 60.5 at the SuperBook. Eight yards might not seem like a lot, but that's a substantial shift nine days before kickoff.
Without further ado, here are my five favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LVI:
Matthew Stafford's first pass incomplete or intercepted (+245 at FanDuel)
Don't rule out Stafford taking a deep shot on LA's first pass play to keep the Cincinnati defense honest. If that's the case, a home run ball would realistically be priced around a 50/50 shot. This price (+245) implies a 29% chance of probability. I'm sorry, but I feel like there's way less than a 70% chance that Stafford completes his first pass. So let's fade and root against a five-yard curl on the first play.
Opening kickoff will not be a touchback (+154 at FanDuel)
This has been one of my favorite prop bets to make over the years. Bookmakers are starting to get smarter, though, because FanDuel had this priced at +230 in last year's Super Bowl. It's worth remembering that the opening kick ball comes straight out of the box and gets packaged for Canton after the first play. Former Colts punter Pat McAfee famously said it was like "kicking a brick" when he drilled the opening kick in Super Bowl XLIV.
Over 5.5 sacks (+110 at DraftKings)
Stafford and Joe Burrow love to stand tall in the pocket and let their receivers get open. This opens the door for big plays down the field, but also the inevitable sacks that come with holding onto the ball too long. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times in the regular season and his offensive line is nothing special. Stafford was only sacked 30 times in 17 regular-season games, but the Bengals are no slouches on the defensive line, either. I'm going "Over" 5.5 sacks at plus-money.
Any non-QB to throw a touchdown pass (+1400 at DraftKings)
This one is an absolute dice roll, yet I'm still intrigued at +1400. Those odds imply less than a 7% chance of mathematical likelihood, but who knows what Sean McVay's got up his sleeves for the Super Bowl. Tell me you can't envision a wide-receiver pass to the end zone from Cooper Kupp, or something like that. There's no question that Kupp will draw brackets and doubles from the Bengals D, and maybe he takes a screen pass and rips a spiral to the painted area when the defense least expects it.
Mickey Guyton holds "brave" Over 6.5 seconds (-115 at Global)
Now we're gambling, baby! Naturally, I dug up this video of Guyton singing the national anthem last May in Washington, D.C. Even more naturally, I timed her "brave" note at just under eight seconds. Conventional wisdom tells you Guyton will be even more grandiose before the Super Bowl with 100-plus million people watching at home. And you already know I'll have my iPhone stopwatch ready to go.
