The Los Angeles Rams opened as a 3.5-point favorite against the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.
That line lasted all of about 10 minutes.
The Westgate SuperBook posted Rams -3.5 this past Sunday at 9:37 pm ET. By 9:46, the line was out to -4 thanks to some limit bets from respected players. By Monday night, most sportsbooks were dealing Rams -4.5 — the current consensus number across the American market.
“I was planning to bet L.A. at -4 or less,” one professional bettor told NESN. “My power ratings have L.A. 5.5 points better than Cincinnati on a neutral (field). Even if you’re on the low end of home field advantage and add only 1.5 points, that makes my true number around Rams -7.
“Imagine my surprise when the books hung Rams -3.5 on the open.”
The anatomy of this Super Bowl point spread is rather interesting. Sportsbooks were clearly more than okay writing the first few bets on Los Angeles at -3.5 and -4. Could that be because the books are forecasting an avalanche of Bengals money from the betting public next Friday, Saturday and Sunday?
Maybe.
“Bengals moneyline is shaping up to be a very public play,” Westgate SuperBook sportsbook director John Murray told NESN. “The public can’t get enough of Joe Burrow as an underdog.”
“The Rams defense is built to stop high-powered passing offenses,” the professional bettor opined. “Look what they did to Arizona and Tampa Bay this postseason. They struggle against power football, which was on full display against San Francisco’s physical running attack. That’s not Cincinnati’s style. They go with three or four wide receivers and spread it around.
“And I love the Rams defensive line against a very average Bengals offensive line.”
We’re still 10 days away from Super Bowl LVI, but it’s impossible to ignore the market move from -3.5 to -4.5 in the first 24 hours of taking bets. I don’t expect the line to climb much higher — 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers — and it’s extremely difficult to envision Los Angeles getting bet out to -6.
The Bengals are a perfect 3-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs and they’ve actually covered in seven straight games. Most bettors tend to fall in love with the profitable underdog and there will certainly be plenty of monetary support for Burrow and his ‘mates to keep the game close or win outright.
Just know that the wise guys are betting against it.
