Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames Betting Guide: Flames Can Make it Five in a Row vs. Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Maple Leafs -142|Flames +118

Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+172)|Flames +1.5 (-215)

Total: 6.5 Over +100|Under -122

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames News, Analysis, and Picks

The Calgary Flames will be looking for victories on consecutive nights when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday. Calgary handily defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 6-0 last night and will turn to Dan Vladar between the pipes against the Leafs. The Flames metrics have been among the best in the league. Although that’s normally where you find the Maple Leafs, that hasn’t been the case over their recent sample.

Since before the All-Star break, Toronto’s metrics were starting to suffer. The Leafs have been outplayed in three of their past four, a span in which they are 4-0-0. The offense has been carrying the Leafs over this stretch, as they are scoring on 17.4 percent of their shots, despite a decrease in offensive metrics. The Maple Leafs are high-danger and scoring chances are down marginally across all strengths over the four-game sample. The divide that’s forming between production metrics and output puts the Leafs at risk of regression, as their PDO is 1.078 over their recent stretch and 1.019 on the season.

The Flames have found a much more sustainable way of winning games and they continue to dominate on a near-nightly basis. Last night’s victory was the eighth straight game in which the Flames have outplayed their opponents at five-on-five. Calgary is smothering teams on both ends of the ice, putting up double-digit quality chances and 26 or more scoring opportunities at five-on-five in six of their last eight outings, out-chancing their opponents in scoring opportunities in all eight games and getting out-chanced in high-danger chances just once over that span.

Analytically, there is a big difference between these teams’ recent performances. The Flames system has them firing on all cylinders while the Leafs have been exhausting their puck luck over their recent stretch. We like the Flames to come out on top but wouldn’t be surprised if it takes overtime to get there.

The Picks: Flames +118, Tie +330

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.