The NFL draft is one of the most fluid markets in sports betting.
Information tends to instantaneously shift draft prices -- sometimes before you can hit "submit" on a column -- and it's a regular occurrence to see a player's price move 30 cents in less than 10 minutes.
Late Tuesday night, I hosted a Twitter Spaces with some peers who are plugged into the NFL. CBS Sports senior writer Will Brinson suggested a bet on Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis "Under" 14.5 (-125). This is a draft position wager where the "Under" wins if Davis is selected between the No. 1 pick and the No. 14 pick. If Davis goes 15th or higher, the "Over" wins.
By midnight Wednesday, Davis was u14.5 (-165) at DraftKings and other books have even higher juice. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is currently dealing Davis u14.5 (-280). So you have to lay $280 to win $100 there. This makes a wager exponentially more expensive as your risk rises.
To win $500 on Davis at -125, you have to risk $625. To win $500 at -280, you have to risk $1,400.
Another player whose NFL draft stock is starting to slide is Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean. There have been growing concerns about Dean's medicals and his draft position market is still ripe for betting. betting. One trusted professional bettor told me he expects Dean to fall into the second round.
There has been some smoke about Dean being a great fit for New England at No. 21, but the market doesn't lie. Most American sportsbooks are dealing Dean's draft prop around 10 slots higher.
Nakobe Dean's NFL Draft position market
DraftKings: O/U 30.5 (o-130)
BetMGM: O/U 30.5 (o-170)
PointsBet: O/U 30.5 (o-200)
FanDuel: O/U 31.5 (o-130)
Circa: O/U 32.5 (o-130)
Dean's draft position prop was 29.5 late last week, so as you can see, money is moving against him.
And why would you bet "Over" 32.5 at Circa when you could bet "Over" 30.5 at DraftKings for the same price? It's a $130 wager to win $100 at both shops, but you get a full two slots of cushion at the latter.
The closer we get to Thursday night, I expect DraftKings' price to jump to -150 or -160 at the minimum. It's also very possible that those 30.5 positions morph into 31.5s, so if Dean goes No. 31, you win on "Over" 30.5, but lose on "Over" 31.5. It's absolutely crucial that you get ahead of the betting curve to maximize your money and minimize your risk.
I think it's a great bet to short Dean to go No. 31 or higher in the NFL draft.
Nakobe Dean "Over" 30.5 (-130)
RECORD: (110-105, +31.9)
