Red Sox Odds: Bet ‘Over’ On Rafael Devers 2022 Season Home Run Total

Rafael Devers smashed 38 homers in 156 regular-season games last season.

The Boston Red Sox third baseman also hit five long balls in 11 postseason games, proof that the 25-year-old slugger can thrive in pressure-packed situations and that the moment isn’t too big for him.

DraftKings Sportsbook made Devers’ home run total 37.5 for 2022, and I think it’s too low.

If you look at his career numbers, you’ll see that 38 is his career-high, but personal records were meant to be broken. I was extremely impressed with the way Devers made in-game adjustments and even more impressed that he deposited 13 baseballs over the wall in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

“The biggest difference for Devers last season was that his plate discipline improved dramatically,” NESN Red Sox host Tom Caron told me. “They’re focusing on his controlled aggressiveness. His strikeout rate dropped from 27% in 2020 to 21% in 2021. He’s not chasing bad pitches outside the zone and he’s been absolutely ripping balls in spring training.”

Red Sox Odds: Five Prop Bets Worth Considering In 2022 Regular Season

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Player home run totals at DraftKings:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 43.5
Pete Alonso 41.5
Yordan Alvarez 39.5
Matt Olson 39.5
Joey Gallo 38.5
Shohei Ohtani 38.5
Rafael Devers 37.5
Aaron Judge 36.5
Ronald Acuna Jr. 36.5
Bryce Harper 34.5
Tyler O’Neil 34.5
Franmil Reyes 34.5
Juan Soto 34.5
Adam Duvall 33.5
Brandon Lowe 33.5
Eugenio Suarez 33.5

As you can see, Devers has the seventh-highest home run total, so oddsmakers clearly respect his power and potential at the plate. DraftKings also has a head-to-head prop that pits Devers against Judge, which is a really interesting wager amongst AL East powers.

I really like Rafael Devers to bash 40-plus homers this season.

It’s looking more and more like he’ll hit second — behind Kiké Hernandez and before Xander Bogaerts — meaning he’ll get plenty of extra at-bats, plus opposing teams won’t be able to pitch around him. That’s ideal for a blossoming young star to thrive in a very loaded lineup.

Rafael Devers Over 37.5 homers (+100)

RECORD: (109-103, +33.1)