It’s not often the Masters champion sneaks up on us.
Sure, Hideki Matsuyama wasn’t on a ton of radar screens a year ago, but the Japanese superstar had established himself as an elite with solid finishes at Augusta National Golf Club. You also could say Tiger Woods winning in 2019 came out of nowhere, but at the same time, he’s Tiger Woods.
The same players with typically the same traits seem to play the best every year at the Masters. Typically, the longer hitters have the most success. And if you’re not an elite ball-striker, you better be superb around the green in order to make up for balls that might roll off Augusta National’s unique greens. And once you’re on the putting surface, you better be able to handle the undulations and lightning-fast speeds. It’s really no surprise just one debutant has won, and that hasn’t happened in more than 40 years.
With all of that in mind, we’re back trying to build power rankings for the players we think have the best chance of winning this week. In full disclosure, Matsuyama didn’t make our list last year, but he did enter the week 60-1 to win, so it’s not like we were alone.
On to the 2022 power rankings, with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
16. Joaquin Niemann (+6500): His recent tee-to-green game is the best of anyone in the entire field, and he’s also a wizard around the green. He might not be the most consistent player, but when he gets going — like he did in a star-studded Genesis tournament — he can dominate.
15. Shane Lowry (+5500): His approach game is absolutely dialed in, and the results have been there through the Florida swing. He minimizes mistakes and has the mettle to win a major.
14. Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500): Quietly, Fitzpatrick has been incredible in 2022, finishing top 10 in four of his five starts, the only slip-up coming on the wrong side of the draw at The Players. He has no real flaws, which should allow him to hang around all weekend.
13. Will Zalatoris (+3500): Four straight under-par rounds paced a second-place finish in his debut. His short putting can be tough to watch, but he actually lags it quite well, which is an important Augusta skill.
12. Patrick Cantlay (+2500): He only has two top-10 finishes in majors, which feels low for someone that talented. He’s remarkably consistent everywhere else, though, and if it clicks, he’s got the talent to contend and win.
11. Viktor Hovland (+2000): He’s going to win here eventually; it just might not be this weekend. His short game remains an issue, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him go bonkers and win going away, either.
10. Rory McIlroy (+2000): Rory at Augusta would be a lot more impressive if you just stripped away some of the context, most notably he needs a green jacket to complete the career grand slam and hasn’t won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship. He’s got six top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at Augusta but did miss the cut last season.
9. Xander Schauffele (+2000): He has two top-10 finishes in majors every year for the last four years but hasn’t broken through yet. Schauffele put himself in position to win last year before hitting it in the water at 16. He should be on the first page come Sunday.
8. Collin Morikawa (+1800): Winning two of your first eight major appearances gets you in the conversation no matter what, despite maybe not having a game perfectly suited for the Masters. His ball striking is too good to ignore, though.
7. Jordan Spieth (+2200): The recent form kind of stinks, but he lives for Augusta. Spieth has five finishes of 11th or better in seven Masters starts, including a third-place finish in 2021.
6. Brooks Koepka (+2000): He has been inconsistent recently, but he does have four majors to his name, and he has looked better in spurts of late. He missed the cut last year, but that was on a bad knee. In the two years prior, he had a seventh- and second-place finish.
5. Scottie Scheffler (+1200): The only reason to fade Scheffler, the new world No. 1, is the law of averages because Scheffler has three wins since the Super Bowl. The Masters is the only major he didn’t finish top 10 last year.
4. Justin Thomas (+1400): Thomas has gained more strokes total than anyone else in the field over their last 24 rounds, with six top-10 finishes in nine starts dating back to the Tour Championship. He has shown flashes of brilliance at Augusta but hasn’t put together a full weekend yet.
3. Cameron Smith (+1400): Last we saw Smith, he was winning The Players. His blend of creativity and fearlessness plays perfectly here, and he also has the short game to avoid the big number when he misses greens. He has two top-five finishes here, too.
2. Jon Rahm (+900): Rahm has been overvalued by just about everyone, including sportsbooks, but it does tell you how everyone also believes it’s always one week away. The recent form hasn’t been pretty — his putting and around-the-green game have been really bad — but he’s averaging a sixth-place finish here in his last four years. The blow-up holes have done him in, though. If he can avoid those this week, he’ll contend.
1. Dustin Johnson (+1600): The recent form isn’t especially impressive, but he’s showing signs of life that make you think he’s peaking for the majors. He just finished fourth at the Match Play, and he obviously knows how to win at Augusta National. Last year’s missed cut was an aberration, too; Johnson had finished no worse than 10th in his six previous Masters appearances, highlighted by the 2020 victory.
