Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Model Preview


May 9, 2022

The Boston Celtics will look to even up their series with the Milwaukee Bucks tonight on the road from the Fiserv Forum.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks held on for a 103-101 victory in Game 3 and will look to keep home-court advantage in their favor with a win tonight. The Greek Freak posted a game-high 42 points in Saturday’s win, to go along with 12 rebounds and eight assists, while Jaylen Brown had 27 for the Celtics.

Neither team shot very well but the Bucks did have a better touch, going 40.4% from the floor, compared to Boston’s 36.8%.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks NBA Game Information

Boston Celtics (5-2) | Milwaukee Bucks (6-2)

Date: 05/09/2022 | Time: 07:30 PM

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin | Venue: Fiserv Forum

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Celtics +2.5/ Bucks -2.5 | Current: Celtics +1 (-108)/ Bucks -1 (-108) 

Game Total Open: 209.5 | Current: 212

Moneyline Open: Celtics +120/ Bucks -140 | Current: Celtics -104/ Bucks -112

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +700

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Milwaukee Bucks +450

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Analysis

If the Celtics hope to find a way to head back home with this series all square, they’ll need plenty more than they got from Jayson Tatum in Game 3, who finished with just ten points on 4-of-19 shooting. Tatum can still impact the game in other ways, but there’s no doubt the Celtics need his offense to turn this series back in Boston’s favor.

Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday combined for 67 points in the Game 3 win, which is the type of production they’ll need to continue without Khris Middleton in the lineup. The Bucks have played a small rotation of just eight players who they’re confident in how they can play on both ends of the floor.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the Celtics a 74.47% win probability for tonight’s Game 4, which is a high number, but could be warranted after their late comeback attempt fell just short in Game 3. There’s a lot to like in this game from a betting perspective, with the Celtics also given a five-star rating on both the moneyline and spread tonight, which are very similar numbers with the Bucks just a 1point favorite.

The Celtics are the way to go tonight if you’re looking towards just the outcome of the game, but there’s also value in the total as well. The total for tonight is currently set at 212 points, after opening at 209.5, which means we’re seeing some action in favor of the over, consistent with the model, which gives the Over a five-star rating after we’ve seen point totals of 190, 195, and 204 so far this series.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Boston Celtics (74.47%) vs Milwaukee Bucks (25.53%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

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