Tiger Woods made his 22nd straight cut at Augusta National last month and the golf world couldn't get enough. He was solid on Thursday at the Masters, struggled on Friday and reached the weekend despite finishing nine shots off the lead.
It was Woods' first PGA Tour start in a year and a half after a single-car accident in Los Angeles that almost led to his right leg being amputated. His recovery is an incredible story and his ability to compete through adversity will never be questioned.
But we should still pump the brakes on Tiger being "back."
Woods hasn't participated in any golf tournaments since the Masters -- where he finished 13-over after four full rounds -- and his recent form is a complete unknown. He claims he's in great shape, but don't we all?
I'm way too ready to be a crusty curmudgeon and bet on Tiger Woods to miss the cut this weekend at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. Take that, narrative!
One Las Vegas golf oddsmaker agrees.
"He's not making the cut," Circa Sports assistant sportsbook manager Jeff Davis told NESN. "We are a very anti-Tiger Woods book. I watched all four rounds of his five weeks ago. If walking is a challenge, making the cut and winning a golf tournament is going to be a greater challenge."
Making the cut and winning the PGA Championship are two completely conversations, but both markets are bettable at almost every American sportsbook. Most make/miss markets are being dealt around -130 for Woods to make ($130 wins $100) and +100 to miss ($100 wins $100).
Davis is dealing a better straddle at -125 to make and +105 to miss, but I'm burying the lede. Circa Sports has the highest future number on Woods to come away with a victory this coming Sunday at 104-1.
Tiger Woods' odds to win PGA Championship:
+6000 FOX Bet ($100 wins $6,000)
+6500 DraftKings
+6600 BetMGM
+7000 FanDuel
+8000 SuperBook
+10400 Circa ($100 wins $10,400).
It's nothing personal -- it's business. Davis has the ability to take a stance on a golfer as if to say "step right up" or "put your money where your mouth is." That explains his triple-digit stance against Tiger.
"There's a bunch of liability on Tiger, but there's no nerves," Davis explained. "I'm actually going further and further out on the (future) price. Since Tiger is not going to win, I figure I might as well raise him."
Woods winning the PGA Championship never even crossed my mind. Nobody truly knows how healthy he is and he'll also have to deal with a recently renovated golf course at Southern Hills. I'm willing to bet against Woods away from his Masters comfort zone.
Tiger Woods to miss the cut +100
RECORD: (114-109, +32.9)
