Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Betting Model Preview
The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are set to collide for Game 6 tonight, where the Suns will have a chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Chris Paul and the Suns put on a dominating performance in Game 5, where they limited the Mavs to just 80 points in a 110-80 victory. Devin Booker and Luka Doncic both dropped 28 points in the contest to lead their respective teams.
Depth scoring continues to be an issue for the Mavericks, but they’ve been able to withstand that and win both games at home in this series.
Phoenix Suns (7-4) | Dallas Mavericks (6-5)
Date: 05/12/2022 | Time: 09:30 PM
Location: Dallas, Texas | Venue: American Airlines Center
Spread Open: Suns -1.5/ Mavericks +1.5 | Current: Suns -2/ Mavericks +2
Game Total Open: 213 | Current: 211
Moneyline Open: Suns -130/ Mavericks +110 | Current: Suns -126/ Mavericks +108
All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Phoenix Suns +220
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +4500
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks AnalysisThe home team has won every game in this series and tonight it will be the Mavericks’ turn to host Game 6, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues. The Suns were the much more efficient shooting team in Game 5, finishing at 49.4%, while also playing a dominant defensive game and limiting the Mavericks to just 38%. Phoenix has that ability to not only shoot well but also play great defense, which is one of the reasons they continue to be in a tie for the top odds to win the NBA Championship this season with Golden State at +220.
If the Suns are able to limit the Mavericks scorers aside from Doncic, this could be the end of the season for Dallas tonight.
The SportsGrid betting model sees this as a tight matchup, unlike what we saw during Game 5 in Phoenix. The Suns currently boast a win probability of 50.32%, but there isn’t a big lean either way in terms of the spread and moneyline. The Mavericks are given a one-star rating on the moneyline while getting a two-star rating on the spread, which means there is little value with the Suns favored by two points on the road.
In terms of the total, the line for tonight is set at 212 and has fallen one point after opening at 213. The SportsGrid betting model really likes the over in this Game 6, giving it a five-star rating. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 235, 237, 197, 212, and 190, breezing by the total twice. You likely should expect the Mavericks to shoot better at home than they did on the road in Game 5, which makes the over a tasty play in this spot.
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Phoenix Suns (50.32%) vs Dallas Mavericks (49.68%)
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DAL 1 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DAL 2 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars
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